Part of: Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,096.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, strike, Israel x Iran, Iran Offensive Strikes, Geopolitics, Regional Spillover, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Pro trader fading spike
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader bought No during a major volume spike after a sharp run-up, suggesting a deliberate fade of elevated Iran-strike odds.
- This bettor has 876 resolved trades, wins 64% of the time, and is up about $955k lifetime
- They bought No at 71¢ after this market saw a 61.5x volume spike and a fast price jump, fading the panic move
- The market is liquid enough to matter, and their 71¢ entry is well above the current 58¢ price on No
$1,367 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Pro geopolitics NO buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No after a sharp move in a geopolitics market, and the position is already up from 67¢ to 76¢.
- This wallet has nearly 900 resolved bets, a 64% win rate, and about $955k in profit.
- They bought No for $4.7k at 67¢ in a market that quickly moved higher and now sits at 76¢.
- This trader has bet across 39 related markets and 28 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading process.
$4,729 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Related Theses
Hormuz blockade lifts in June
Covers 6 related markets
Iran airspace stays open
Covers 3 related markets
US-Iran talks happen in June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal after May
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal by mid-May
Covers 9 related markets
Iran closure timing mispriced
Covers 5 related markets
US gets Iranian uranium soon
Covers 2 related markets
Iran closes airspace by June
Covers 5 related markets
Nuclear deal by year-end
Covers 3 related markets
