Part of: Iran successfully targets shipping by...?

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,283.

Categories: seize, strike, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, ship

Notable Trades

96% winner fading spike

A proven 96% winning wallet is fading a sharp Yes spike by selling Yes, which converts to buying No at 31¢.

  • This bettor has won 24 of 25 resolved trades and is up $2.9K lifetime.
  • They sold Yes after a rapid 30-point move in under 2 minutes, effectively backing No at 31¢.
  • The market is highly active today, with $110K traded in 24 hours and Yes up nearly 60 points.

$1,283 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

Profitable sharp buying breakout

A proven profitable wallet bought Yes into a major breakout on a geopolitics market with strong recent momentum and thin liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
  • Yes has surged about 66 points in the past day, including a 30-point jump in under 2 minutes.
  • The $1K buy at 81¢ is meaningful against only $4.7K of liquidity, suggesting confident positioning.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc4b2...9a9b Outcome 10980135, $5,731 (85% win rate)
  2. 0xb476...6eac Outcome 10980135, $5,302 (64% win rate)
  3. 0x4d70...2698 Outcome 10980135, $2,657 (61% win rate)
  4. 0x218f...367e Outcome 10980135, $2,512
  5. 0x35e3...9188 Outcome 10980135, $1,483 (65% win rate)
  6. 0x64a9...7311 Outcome 10980135, $1,407
  7. 0x4178...fbcb Outcome 10980135, $1,000
  8. 0x619d...b31c Outcome 10980135, $1,000
  9. 0x7ae8...5a42 Outcome 10980135, $800
  10. 0x8c0b...f0fb Outcome 10980135, $750 (81% win rate)

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Iran surrenders in June

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Iran closure mid-July only

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Hormuz disruptions persist past September

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Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

ResolvedIran successfully targets shipping by...?$2,283 tracked2 signalsseizestrikeIranU.S. x IranIran Ceasefireship

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Notable Trades

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

23d ago

$1,283 on No at 31¢

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

23d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 81¢

Related Theses