Part of: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,519.
Categories: Khamenei, Iran Regime, Kharg Island, Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
92% winner buying longshot
Surfacing because a highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet is buying a longshot Yes and has related cross-market positioning despite only a modest signal score.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $96K lifetime.
- They are positioning across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
- Entry at 3¢ is a high-upside longshot if their edge is real.
$1,519 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
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