Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
10 signals across 1 market · $169,774 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $169,774 in smart money activity and recent signals including sharp Yes buying, a 13-wallet cluster flipping Yes, and a serial cross-market bettor returning on No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 13-wallet cluster flips Yes
A 13-wallet linked cluster is leaning the same way in a major geopolitics market, and these three wallets just sold No around 85-86¢—equivalent to buying Yes at 14-15¢—with one wallet showing a strong long-term track record.
$21,500Score: 14.1 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets piled into the same low-priced Yes side, led by a bettor with an 88% win rate and nearly $1.0M in profit across extensive cross-market trading.
$6,479Score: 10.1 - 83% serial trader buys YES
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate effectively bought Yes at 10¢ during a major volume spike.
$70,977Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 6.6 - 75% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate is making a fresh bullish ceasefire bet by selling No at 88¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, which stands out even without stronger market-wide signals.
$4,573Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 73% win rate and $604k profit is taking a fresh $5k Yes position at 10¢ in a major geopolitics market.
$5,044Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate and $605k in profits just bought Yes at 9¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a notable low-price conviction bet worth watching.
$5,556Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Serial cross-market bettor re-enters NO
Large fresh No re-entry by a serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved-market win rate on a geopolitics market.
$38,444Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.0 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$2,129Wallet win rate: 50%Score: 3.5 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$4,701Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 2.2 - Sharp bettor buys NO
A highly profitable wallet with an 85% win rate and nearly $1.48M in realized profit made a sizable directional bet on a major geopolitics market, which is notable despite the otherwise routine market conditions.
$10,372Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf67f72…31cf$109,421 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xb1a279…372a$10,600 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0x31c518…ede4$10,372 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0xc6587b…b784$4,701 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$4,573 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0x39ef75…163a$2,129 · 1 market · 1 alert · 50% wins
FAQs
What are the odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
The odds come from Polymarket trading on whether an official ceasefire agreement is reached by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the market price along with smart money alerts to show how experienced wallets are positioning on Yes versus No.
What does this Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prediction market resolve on?
The market resolves Yes if Russia and Ukraine publicly announce a mutually agreed halt in military engagement by June 30, 2026. The agreement must represent a general ceasefire in the conflict, not just a narrow or local pause.
What is smart money doing in this market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show notable Yes-side activity, including a 13-wallet cluster flipping Yes, sharp cluster buying Yes, and an 83% serial trader buying YES. There has also been No-side interest, including a serial cross-market bettor re-entering NO.
How much smart money has PolySpotter tracked on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $169,774 in smart money activity across this Russia-Ukraine ceasefire event, with 10 smart money signals identified so far.
When does the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market resolve?
The market is scheduled around the June 30, 2026 deadline. If a qualifying official ceasefire agreement is reached before then, it can resolve Yes even if the ceasefire starts after the deadline.