Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
10 signals across 1 market · $169,774 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 13-wallet cluster flips Yes
A 13-wallet linked cluster is leaning the same way in a major geopolitics market, and these three wallets just sold No around 85-86¢—equivalent to buying Yes at 14-15¢—with one wallet showing a strong long-term track record.
$21,500Score: 14.1 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets piled into the same low-priced Yes side, led by a bettor with an 88% win rate and nearly $1.0M in profit across extensive cross-market trading.
$6,479Score: 10.1 - 83% serial trader buys YES
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate effectively bought Yes at 10¢ during a major volume spike.
$70,977Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 6.6 - 75% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate is making a fresh bullish ceasefire bet by selling No at 88¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, which stands out even without stronger market-wide signals.
$4,573Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 4.0 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 73% win rate and $604k profit is taking a fresh $5k Yes position at 10¢ in a major geopolitics market.
$5,044Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate and $605k in profits just bought Yes at 9¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a notable low-price conviction bet worth watching.
$5,556Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Serial cross-market bettor re-enters NO
Large fresh No re-entry by a serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved-market win rate on a geopolitics market.
$38,444Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.0 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$2,129Wallet win rate: 50%Score: 3.5 - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
$4,701Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 2.2 - Sharp bettor buys NO
A highly profitable wallet with an 85% win rate and nearly $1.48M in realized profit made a sizable directional bet on a major geopolitics market, which is notable despite the otherwise routine market conditions.
$10,372Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf67f72…31cf$109,421 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xb1a279…372a$10,600 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0x31c518…ede4$10,372 · 1 market · 1 alert · 85% wins
- 0xc6587b…b784$4,701 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$4,573 · 1 market · 1 alert · 74% wins
- 0x39ef75…163a$2,129 · 1 market · 1 alert · 50% wins