Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,600.
Notable Trades
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong 73% win rate and $604k profit is taking a fresh $5k Yes position at 10¢ in a major geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 73% of 488 resolved trades and is up about $605k lifetime
- They have traded 339 markets across 255 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- Buying Yes at 10¢ means they only need the ceasefire odds to be meaningfully higher than the market's current 10% view
$5,044 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate and $605k in profits just bought Yes at 9¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a notable low-price conviction bet worth watching.
- This bettor has won 73% of 488 resolved trades and is up about $605k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related events at scale, with $5.6M deployed over 255 events
- Bought Yes at 9¢ in a deep geopolitics market, implying they see the ceasefire odds as materially above the market
$5,556 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $332,561 (71% win rate)
- 0xa53e...218d — Yes, $193,315 (50% win rate)
- 0xd93c...689c — Yes, $136,188
- 0xb1a2...372a — Yes, $124,516 (73% win rate)
- 0x21f7...8f97 — No, $118,637
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $118,577 (62% win rate)
- 0x8d0c...5839 — No, $110,694 (71% win rate)
- 0xf7bd...dc4a — No, $110,010
- 0xe792...ffe4 — No, $106,164
- 0xf67f...31cf — No, $106,160 (83% win rate)
