Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
109 signals across 1 market · $766,052 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 13-wallet Yes cluster
A brand-new wallet that has already placed repeated large bets joined a 13-wallet one-sided push into Yes during a major volume spike, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite the single wallet's modest size.
$1,001Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 13.1 - 8-wallet linked No cluster
An 8-wallet coordinated cluster, including 4 linked wallets and several brand-new accounts, is buying No together into a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting organized conviction worth watching despite limited individual track record.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 12.5 - 7-wallet No cluster
A 2-day-old wallet that has already made 11 large flagged bets joined a 7-wallet one-sided push into No on a fast-moving geopolitics market, adding fresh size even after a prior round-trip.
$1,896Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 12.3 - 6-wallet funded cluster
A 6-wallet funded cluster is repeatedly deploying fresh capital into the same thesis here, and this wallet just made a sizable $9.8k buy despite already-elevated market attention.
$9,777Score: 12.1 - 18-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable serial cross-market bettor from a large 18-wallet funded cluster opened a fresh $2.7k Yes position into a fast-moving geopolitics market after previously closing an earlier position.
$2,733Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - 87% winner joins Yes cluster
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate just sold No, which converts to a fresh Yes buy around 55¢, aligning with a 7-wallet $24.5k one-sided cluster in a fast-moving market.
$1,816Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 11.3 - 11-wallet NO cluster
An 11-wallet one-sided cluster bought No into a major volume spike, led in part by a 2-day-old wallet already betting actively and profitably.
$1,938Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 11.2 - 9-wallet No cluster
A very new wallet that has already made repeated large bets joined a 9-wallet one-sided push into No, suggesting coordinated conviction behind this thesis.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 11.2 - 11-wallet No cluster
A profitable serial cross-market trader joined a strong 11-wallet one-sided move into No before the market repriced sharply, making this coordinated flow worth following despite the modest single-ticket size.
$1,065Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 11.1 - 3-wallet funded cluster
A 9-day-old wallet with no resolved history joined a previously observed 3-wallet funded cluster, and this trade is a fresh coordinated bet on Yes rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,033Score: 11.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$52,644 · 1 market · 9 alerts · 86% wins
- 0x8b4bca…541b$51,316 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$46,391 · 1 market · 18 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xf1bf47…11d7$28,645 · 1 market · 1 alert · 50% wins
- 0x293e58…7674$27,450 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$24,308 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xd5ccdf…dea4$24,164 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xe1194d…e30f$20,280 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 75% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$19,413 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xacbca1…7cc3$15,966 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 19% wins