Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
109 signals across 1 market · $766,052 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This prediction market tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by the end of April 2026, based on IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of ship arrivals. Traders are betting on whether transit calls reach at least 60 before the deadline, with PolySpotter tracking $766K+ in smart-money activity and multiple clustered wallet signals on both Yes and No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 13-wallet Yes cluster
A brand-new wallet that has already placed repeated large bets joined a 13-wallet one-sided push into Yes during a major volume spike, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite the single wallet's modest size.
$1,001Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 13.1 - 8-wallet linked No cluster
An 8-wallet coordinated cluster, including 4 linked wallets and several brand-new accounts, is buying No together into a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting organized conviction worth watching despite limited individual track record.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 12.5 - 7-wallet No cluster
A 2-day-old wallet that has already made 11 large flagged bets joined a 7-wallet one-sided push into No on a fast-moving geopolitics market, adding fresh size even after a prior round-trip.
$1,896Wallet win rate: 0%Score: 12.3 - 6-wallet funded cluster
A 6-wallet funded cluster is repeatedly deploying fresh capital into the same thesis here, and this wallet just made a sizable $9.8k buy despite already-elevated market attention.
$9,777Wallet win rate: 9%Score: 12.1 - 18-wallet sharp cluster
A profitable serial cross-market bettor from a large 18-wallet funded cluster opened a fresh $2.7k Yes position into a fast-moving geopolitics market after previously closing an earlier position.
$2,733Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - 87% winner joins Yes cluster
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate just sold No, which converts to a fresh Yes buy around 55¢, aligning with a 7-wallet $24.5k one-sided cluster in a fast-moving market.
$1,816Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 11.3 - 11-wallet NO cluster
An 11-wallet one-sided cluster bought No into a major volume spike, led in part by a 2-day-old wallet already betting actively and profitably.
$1,938Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 11.2 - 9-wallet No cluster
A very new wallet that has already made repeated large bets joined a 9-wallet one-sided push into No, suggesting coordinated conviction behind this thesis.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 11.2 - 11-wallet No cluster
A profitable serial cross-market trader joined a strong 11-wallet one-sided move into No before the market repriced sharply, making this coordinated flow worth following despite the modest single-ticket size.
$1,065Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 11.1 - 3-wallet funded cluster
A 9-day-old wallet with no resolved history joined a previously observed 3-wallet funded cluster, and this trade is a fresh coordinated bet on Yes rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,033Score: 11.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$52,644 · 1 market · 9 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x8b4bca…541b$51,316 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$46,391 · 1 market · 18 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xf1bf47…11d7$28,645 · 1 market · 1 alert · 50% wins
- 0x293e58…7674$27,450 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$24,308 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xd5ccdf…dea4$24,164 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xe1194d…e30f$20,280 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 75% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$19,413 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xacbca1…7cc3$15,966 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 16% wins
FAQs
What are the Strait of Hormuz traffic odds on Polymarket?
The market prices reflect traders’ live expectations that IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026. Check the live Polymarket odds and PolySpotter flow to see whether Yes or No is gaining momentum.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter has tracked more than $766,000 in smart-money activity across 109 signals. Recent alerts include a 13-wallet Yes cluster, multiple No clusters including 8-wallet and 7-wallet groups, and an 18-wallet sharp cluster, suggesting active positioning on both sides.
How does this Strait of Hormuz market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls, listed as “Arrivals of Ships,” equal to or above 60 for any date from market creation through April 30, 2026. If that threshold is not reached, it resolves to No.
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz traffic?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping and oil transit route, so changes in vessel activity can signal geopolitical, energy, and trade disruptions. That makes the market relevant to traders following Iran, oil, China, U.S.-Iran tensions, and global macro risk.
When is the deadline for this prediction market?
The market is scheduled to resolve by April 30, 2026, though it can resolve earlier if IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average at or above 60 ship arrivals.