Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $246,538.
Categories: Economy, ships, Iran, China, Geopolitics, Oil, U.S. x Iran, transit, Hormuz, Strait of Hormuz, Macro Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Repeat new-wallet whale
A 3-day-old wallet has repeatedly deployed large size and just put $27.5k into No at 90¢ on a major geopolitical shipping market, suggesting strong conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already triggered 11 large-bet alerts totaling $158k
- They just bought $27.5k of No at 90¢, a concentrated bet that traffic will not normalize by April end
- The market is active and moved hard this week, so this looks like fresh conviction rather than a random punt
$27,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
86% winner flips bearish
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is making a fresh bearish trade here, and the sell converts into buying No around 87¢ on a market that has been falling.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $400k across nearly $7.0M traded
- They bet across 61 related markets in 32 events, which suggests a repeatable event-trading edge
- This trade is effectively a buy on No at 87¢, and the market has already dropped 12 points in the last day
$3,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
14-wallet funded cluster
A 14-wallet linked cluster is backing No in a news-driven shipping market, and this wallet is part of a large cross-market trader with a solid 434-bet history.
- 14 linked wallets share the same funder and are positioning together, which signals coordinated conviction.
- This wallet has a real track record: 269 wins in 434 resolved bets and about $63.7k profit.
- They bought No at 88¢ in a market that fell 14 points in a day, backing the recent move in a news-driven market.
$2,640 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
86% winner re-enters Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate reopened a small Yes position at 18¢ in a major news-driven shipping market after previously trading both sides.
- This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $388k lifetime.
- They trade across 59 related markets and 32 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 18¢ after the market fell 11 points in a day, signaling a fresh low-price re-entry in a news-driven market.
$1,440 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
17-wallet funded cluster
A 17-wallet funded cluster is active again on a high-volume geopolitics market, and this wallet is joining the group by buying No at 80¢ despite recent selling pressure in Yes.
- 17 wallets funded by the same source have hit this market, which points to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- This wallet has won 78% of its resolved bets and is up about $8k, so the flow comes from a bettor with at least some early proof of edge.
- They bought No at 80¢ while Yes fell about 10 points in the last day, aligning with recent market momentum.
$1,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Sharp bettor buying No
A highly profitable wallet with a long proven record is newly buying the No side at 81¢ via a Yes sale, which is notable despite the otherwise weak alert score.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $1.7M lifetime across more than 1,000 bets
- The trade sells Yes at 19¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 81¢ in this binary market
- The market is liquid, so this looks more like a sharp opinion than a forced move from a thin order book
$1,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
74% winner re-enters Yes
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate opened a fresh $3.0k Yes position at 30¢ in a major event market after previously trading both sides, making this a credible thesis-driven re-entry rather than routine flow.
- This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved trades and is up about $230k lifetime
- They trade across 108 markets in 70 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off bet
- The new Yes buy came in at 30¢ on a liquid market, implying they see the traffic recovery odds as meaningfully higher than current pricing
$3,011 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp bettor buys No
A proven sharp wallet with a 76% win rate and strong edge is taking a fresh $2.7k position on No in this geopolitical shipping market at 69¢.
- This bettor wins 76% of their trades and has made about $167k in profit
- Their edge is strong for the prices they pay, with wins coming at average odds of just 30%
- They just bought No at 69¢ in a major event market that has been moving higher over the past week
$2,672 on No | Wallet win rate: 22%
74% winner re-enters Yes
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate opened a fresh $13.9k Yes position at 32¢ in a major event market after previously closing both sides, suggesting a new directional view rather than routine position management.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades across 317 markets and is up about $235k lifetime
- They just opened a fresh $13.9k Yes position at 32¢ after closing earlier positions on both sides
- Entry at 32¢ on a liquid market implies they see a meaningful rebound in Hormuz traffic despite the recent price jump
$13,920 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp bettor buys No
A profitable sharp bettor with a 76% win rate and strong edge bought No at 73¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible signal worth following.
- This bettor wins 76% of their trades and is up $167k across 45 resolved markets
- They bought No at 73¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, suggesting a clear view that traffic will not normalize by month-end
- Their history is strong for the prices they bet at, with average odds around 36¢ and a sizable edge over the market
$11,580 on No | Wallet win rate: 22%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $732,031 (85% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $399,607 (48% win rate)
- 0x78c2...8f4b — No, $376,966
- 0xfffa...864b — No, $371,976 (84% win rate)
- 0xc851...cd2a — Yes, $333,627 (51% win rate)
- 0xc658...b784 — Yes, $326,525 (68% win rate)
- 0xe52c...6924 — No, $290,944 (88% win rate)
- 0xec98...afcd — No, $267,203 (48% win rate)
- 0x97f9...4e4f — No, $257,000
- 0x1d16...e798 — Yes, $202,589 (8% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal in late May
Covers 5 related markets
