Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
93 signals across 1 market · $411,016 tracked · resolves Jul 15, 2026
This event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by July 15, 2026, based on IMF Portwatch data. Traders are betting on whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches at least 60, with PolySpotter tracking smart money activity tied to the market.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 82% winner leads NO cluster
High-scoring NO cluster led by a highly profitable 82% winner, with three wallets aligning during a major volume spike.
$10,692Score: 13.4 - 87% winner joins Yes cluster
A profitable 87% winner joined a 3-wallet Yes cluster during a 27.7x volume spike, making this coordinated buy worth surfacing.
$6,119Score: 10.5 - 94% winner in funded cluster
Sharp 94% lifetime winner from a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding a $6k BUY No position amid strong market momentum toward No.
$6,020Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 10.0 - 97% sharp buys NO
Elite sharp wallet with a 97% resolved win rate and over $1M profit bought No at 64¢ on a geopolitical shipping market.
$2,240Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 9.0 - 97% sharp buys NO
Elite sharp wallet with a 97% resolved win rate and over $1M profit bought No at 64¢ on a geopolitical shipping market.
$2,135Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 9.0 - Sharp NO cluster
Three wallets are aligned on No, including a highly profitable serial cross-market trader and a 16-0 wallet, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite a liquid market.
$8,853Score: 8.1 - Profitable serial trader buys Yes
Surfacing because a highly profitable, high-volume serial cross-market trader is buying Yes, with linked-wallet backing and supportive one-day price momentum.
$3,311Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 8.0 - Sharp 82% winner buys Yes
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 82% long-term win rate bought Yes on the Strait of Hormuz normalization market.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - Sharp 82% winner buys Yes
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 82% long-term win rate bought Yes on the Strait of Hormuz normalization market.
$3,121Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0 - Sharp 82% winner buys Yes
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 82% long-term win rate bought Yes on the Strait of Hormuz normalization market.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xc4c898…cabb$75,169 · 1 market · 14 alerts · 25% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$55,967 · 1 market · 10 alerts · 84% wins
- 0x134a63…9e42$54,373 · 1 market · 12 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$31,905 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 76% wins
- 0xe7cb6e…d447$19,939 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x353852…2c89$16,300 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$14,377 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$13,210 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$10,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0x0a2605…1851$9,116 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 79% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal?
The live odds come from the event's Polymarket market, where traders price the chance that IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the deadline.
What does “traffic returns to normal” mean in this market?
For this event, traffic is considered back to normal if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz “Arrivals of Ships” equal to or above 60 for any date before July 15, 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,280 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal from a profitable serial event trader. That activity can help users see whether experienced traders are leaning Yes or No.
When does the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve by July 15, 2026, but it can resolve earlier if IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average at or above 60.
What data source decides the outcome?
The market uses IMF Portwatch data for Strait of Hormuz transit calls, including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are not counted.