Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
1 signal across 1 market · $1,280 tracked · resolves Jul 15, 2026
This event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by July 15, 2026, based on IMF Portwatch data. Traders are betting on whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches at least 60, with PolySpotter tracking smart money activity tied to the market.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$1,280 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal?
The live odds come from the event's Polymarket market, where traders price the chance that IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the deadline.
What does “traffic returns to normal” mean in this market?
For this event, traffic is considered back to normal if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz “Arrivals of Ships” equal to or above 60 for any date before July 15, 2026.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,280 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal from a profitable serial event trader. That activity can help users see whether experienced traders are leaning Yes or No.
When does the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve by July 15, 2026, but it can resolve earlier if IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average at or above 60.
What data source decides the outcome?
The market uses IMF Portwatch data for Strait of Hormuz transit calls, including container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are not counted.