Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
143 signals across 1 market · $595,760 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This event tracks whether IMF Portwatch data shows Strait of Hormuz transit calls returning to a “normal” level by July 31, 2026. Traders are betting on a Yes/No outcome based on whether the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals reaches at least 60, with PolySpotter flagging smart money activity from a serial macro bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Linked new wallet buying NO
A new profitable wallet tied to a recurring funded cluster is buying No on a high-volume geopolitical market despite recent Yes momentum.
$2,018Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 16.8 - Coordinated Yes flow
Four wallets, including a repeat new-wallet bettor and a linked pair, are taking the same Yes side around 38–39¢ on a liquid geopolitical shipping market.
$9,708Score: 16.5 - Sharp six-wallet Yes cluster
Six wallets bought the Yes side for $32k during a 16.5x volume spike, including a highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and $721k lifetime profit.
$37,981Score: 15.3 - Repeat new wallet buying No
A repeat-flagged new wallet with early profits and linked-wallet clustering is effectively adding $3.5k to No on a liquid geopolitical market.
$3,458Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 12.0 - Linked new wallet buying NO
A new profitable wallet tied to a recurring funded cluster is buying No on a high-volume geopolitical market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,810Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 12.0 - Linked new wallet buying NO
A new profitable wallet tied to a recurring funded cluster is buying No on a high-volume geopolitical market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,862Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 12.0 - Linked new wallet buying NO
A new profitable wallet tied to a recurring funded cluster is buying No on a high-volume geopolitical market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,720Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 12.0 - Linked new wallet buying NO
A new profitable wallet tied to a recurring funded cluster is buying No on a high-volume geopolitical market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,738Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 12.0 - 17-wallet funded No buyer
A new wallet tied to a 17-wallet funded cluster bought No on a geopolitically plausible market with strong recent No momentum.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 11.5 - Linked new wallet buying NO
A new profitable wallet tied to a recurring funded cluster is buying No on a high-volume geopolitical market despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,688Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 11.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x134a63…9e42$81,578 · 1 market · 10 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$75,250 · 1 market · 20 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xb12914…34bf$69,549 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$52,086 · 1 market · 18 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$42,499 · 1 market · 9 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xc4c898…cabb$28,400 · 1 market · 3 alerts
- 0x20b47c…e8aa$25,363 · 1 market · 14 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$19,753 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 87% wins
- 0xf82993…4eaf$17,327 · 1 market · 9 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$14,998 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 69% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing the chance that IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship transit calls before the deadline. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money positioning.
What does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market measure?
The market resolves based on IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average for “Arrivals of Ships” through the Strait of Hormuz. It includes reported container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $7,208 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal from an 86% serial macro bettor. That suggests at least one historically notable macro-focused trader has taken a position.
When does the Strait of Hormuz traffic market resolve?
The market can resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the 7-day moving average at or above 60. If that does not happen, it resolves No after the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Why does Strait of Hormuz traffic matter for markets?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global oil and shipping flows, so disruptions or normalization can affect energy prices, geopolitics, and macro sentiment. That makes this event a focus for traders watching Iran, oil, and shipping risk.