Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
This prediction market tracks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, 2026, using IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of transit calls. The market resolves “Yes” if Portwatch reports 60 or more arrivals of ships on any qualifying date before the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $3,059 in smart money across 1 signal, including activity from serial macro and cross-market bettors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,325.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, ships, Iran, Oil, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
86% serial cross-market trader
A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying No on this Hormuz traffic market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,087 markets and is up $53,573 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 142 events with over $1.1M flagged in related positioning.
- Selling Yes at 46¢ is equivalent to buying No at 54¢, betting traffic will not meet the recovery threshold by July 31.
$3,059 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes on Hormuz traffic normalization via a No sale.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 895 resolved bets and $133k lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $191k deployed across 38 markets in 27 events.
- Selling No at 52¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 48¢, slightly above the current displayed Yes price.
$1,059 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
86% serial macro bettor
Serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought a meaningful Yes position on the Hormuz traffic market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $53.6k lifetime.
- They have traded across 141 events and 222 markets, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
- A $7.2k buy at 46¢ implies they see Yes as meaningfully underpriced.
$7,208 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $32,491 (63% win rate)
- 0xb69b...aa30 — Yes, $15,456
- 0x33dc...bb81 — Yes, $8,021 (75% win rate)
- 0xa10b...8ec6 — Yes, $7,338 (60% win rate)
- 0xb911...8bb6 — Yes, $6,111
- 0xd902...cdb9 — No, $5,039 (66% win rate)
- 0x8088...d2ea — No, $4,333
- 0xb7ef...812c — Yes, $4,000 (83% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — No, $3,578 (68% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $3,110 (68% win rate)
Related Theses
Hormuz disruptions continue past July
Covers 1 related market
