Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
11 signals across 1 market · $113,861 tracked · resolves Jun 15, 2026
This event tracks whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to normal by June 15, 2026, based on IMF Portwatch data showing a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls. Traders are betting Yes or No on whether shipping activity rebounds, with PolySpotter currently tracking $6,089 in smart money and a recent signal from profitable wallets on No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Three wallets buying rebound
A $48k three-wallet push is effectively buying Yes around 12¢ amid a 91x volume spike on a geopolitics/shipping market nearing resolution.
$48,232Score: 7.5 - 6-wallet Yes cluster
Six wallets bought $17.2k of Yes in a tight window on a geopolitical data market, including a large buy from a highly profitable high-volume bettor.
$17,192Score: 7.1 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate is taking a small but asymmetric 3¢ Yes position.
$1,078Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 5.0 - Profitable wallets on No
Three wallets put $6.1k on No in a small market, including two profitable high-volume bettors, making the one-sided flow worth monitoring despite buying a heavy favorite.
$6,089Score: 4.1 - 89% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 8¢ on a geopolitical shipping market.
$2,343Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 4.0 - 89% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and +$255k P&L bought Yes on a geopolitical shipping market.
$2,944Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with a long track record is buying No on a geopolitically sensitive shipping market.
$4,100Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 929 resolved bets and $1.45M lifetime profit bought Yes at 13¢ on a geopolitics/shipping market.
$6,602Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 430 resolved bets is taking a contrarian 9¢ Yes position on a geopolitically driven shipping market.
$3,617Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 3.0 - Profitable 81% winner buying Yes
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with an 81% win record and +$84.9k P&L bought Yes despite only a modest single signal.
$2,331Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf9c119…39e2$19,331 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$6,602 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$5,288 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$4,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$3,617 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x20f916…dad9$2,331 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$1,078 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
The live Polymarket odds reflect what traders think about whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before the June 15, 2026 deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $6,089 in smart money across this event, with a recent alert showing profitable wallets taking the No side.
How does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve?
The market resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” for the Strait of Hormuz at or above 60 for any eligible date before June 15, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves No.
Why does Strait of Hormuz traffic matter to traders?
The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping route for oil and global trade, so changes in vessel traffic can reflect geopolitical risk, sanctions pressure, military tensions, or disruptions to energy markets.
When does the Strait of Hormuz traffic market close or resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by June 15, 2026, but it can resolve earlier if IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying data showing the required traffic threshold has been reached.