Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
4 signals across 1 market · $12,443 tracked · resolves May 25, 2026
This event tracks the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff margin of victory, focused on whether Ken Paxton wins the runoff by 9 percentage points or more. PolySpotter follows the Polymarket odds, liquidity, and smart money activity around the runoff margin, including a signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market bettor bought Yes in a relatively thin political market with a trade larger than the market’s entire prior 24h volume.
$4,150Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.0 - 95% winner buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with a 95% resolved-bet record is taking a $3.5k contrarian No position against a rising market.
$3,525Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly experienced cross-market trader with 869 resolved bets and $736k lifetime profit bought Yes at 71¢ on a political market.
$3,693Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 3.0 - Sharp bettor buying contrarian No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No against a heavily moved market, making this a worthwhile copy-trade candidate despite modest size.
$1,075Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xecaa88…77a9$7,843 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xc4fd6e…fe19$3,525 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
- 0x23d81b…0288$1,075 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for the Texas GOP Senate runoff margin?
This event centers on whether Ken Paxton wins the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff by 9% or more. PolySpotter tracks the live Polymarket price for that outcome and highlights notable smart money activity as it appears.
What outcome is being traded in this event?
The child market asks whether Ken Paxton will win the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff by at least 9 percentage points. The margin is based on the difference between the first- and second-place candidates' vote shares.
Is smart money betting on the Texas Senate runoff margin?
PolySpotter has tracked $4,150 in smart money activity across this event, including a signal tied to a profitable serial cross-market bettor. That does not guarantee the outcome, but it can help show where sharper traders are positioning.
When does the Texas Republican Senate runoff margin market resolve?
The runoff is scheduled for May 26, 2026, and the market resolves based on official results for the margin between the top two candidates in the Republican runoff.