Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by...?
14 signals across 4 markets · $46,986 tracked · resolves Apr 21, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military officially announces that the US-Iran ceasefire has ended by several April 2026 deadlines. Traders are pricing outcomes for April 12, April 15, April 18, and April 21, making this a hub for the market’s view on how long the ceasefire holds. PolySpotter has tracked $46,986 in smart-money activity across 14 signals, including geopolitical and ceasefire-focused wallet clusters.
Markets (4)
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?3 signals · $22,082 tracked
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?5 signals · $12,480 tracked
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?3 signals · $6,702 tracked
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?3 signals · $5,723 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 14-wallet geopolitical cluster
A profitable, highly active linked-wallet trader with a 69% win rate put nearly $3.8k into No on a thin geopolitical market, and the 14-wallet shared-funder cluster makes the flow worth tracking.
$3,790Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 16.5 - 15-wallet funded cluster
A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster is taking a fresh bearish stance on the ceasefire market by effectively buying Yes around 20¢.
$4,991Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 15.0 - 15-wallet event trader cluster
A profitable serial event trader from a 15-wallet linked cluster bought No on this Iran ceasefire market, adding coordinated flow and a solid track record despite the modest size.
$1,596Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 15.0 - 14-wallet ceasefire cluster
A highly active linked-wallet cluster with a strong 344-bet track record just put a five-figure NO bet into a moderately thin ceasefire market, making this coordinated flow worth following.
$10,724Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 15.0 - 75% winner flips to Yes
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate sold No at 83¢ here, which converts to a fresh Yes buy at 17¢ on a geopolitically news-driven market.
$9,635Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 9.8 - 75% win-rate event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought Yes at 26¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis bet worth watching despite the modest size.
$1,314Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 7.0 - Profitable new wallet presses No
A 6-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profits bought $3,000 of No at 78¢ on a geopolitically relevant market, suggesting informed conviction worth tracking.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 88%Score: 6.0 - 99% win-rate resolver
A near-perfect high-volume resolver is buying No in a thin ceasefire market, adding sharp event-specific flow despite modest size.
$3,513Wallet win rate: 98%Score: 5.5 - 88% win-rate bettor
A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is taking a fresh directional view here by effectively buying Yes at 29¢, making this worth surfacing despite the modest size.
$1,423Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 5.0 - 88% winner buys Yes
A high-win-rate bettor with a strong resolved track record is taking a fresh directional position here by effectively buying Yes at 20¢, making this worth surfacing despite only moderate composite strength.
$1,041Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 5.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x162f6f…798d$21,101 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$10,949 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$6,553 · 4 markets · 5 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xa639cb…a48f$3,513 · 1 market · 1 alert · 98% wins
- 0xb58529…53ed$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 88% wins
- 0xe52c0a…6924$1,871 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Trump announces the US-Iran ceasefire has ended?
The odds vary by deadline, with separate Polymarket markets for April 12, April 15, April 18, and April 21, 2026. This event page brings those related markets together so you can compare how traders are pricing the chance of an official ceasefire-ending announcement over time.
What is smart money doing in this Trump Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has detected $46,986 in smart-money activity across 14 signals. Recent alerts include a 14-wallet geopolitical cluster, a 14-wallet ceasefire cluster, and a 75% winner flipping to Yes, suggesting experienced wallets are actively positioning around the ceasefire timeline.
What counts as the ceasefire ending for this Polymarket event?
The markets resolve based on whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by each market’s deadline.
When do these Trump Iran ceasefire markets resolve?
Each child market has its own cutoff date: April 12, April 15, April 18, or April 21, 2026, typically using the specified 11:59 PM ET deadline. The overall event runs through the latest listed deadline.
Why are there multiple markets for the same US-Iran ceasefire event?
The event is structured around timing. Instead of one yes-or-no question, traders can bet on whether an official announcement happens by different dates, which helps show whether the market expects the ceasefire to break quickly or last closer to the full two-week period.