US x Iran ceasefire by...?
258 signals across 8 markets · $3,534,248 tracked
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States and Iran reach an official, publicly confirmed ceasefire agreement by several deadlines, ranging from early April through December 31. Traders are pricing the timing of a potential halt in direct military engagement, with PolySpotter tracking over $3.5M in smart money activity and repeated wallet clusters on both ceasefire and NO positions.
Markets (8)
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?56 signals · $1,269,460 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?41 signals · $926,458 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?70 signals · $676,306 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?34 signals · $234,476 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?31 signals · $215,318 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?12 signals · $106,642 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?12 signals · $98,049 tracked
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?2 signals · $7,539 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A large coordinated cluster of 28 wallets put $232.8k behind a ceasefire thesis across related Iran markets, including several linked wallets and multiple historically profitable cross-market traders, making this a strong directional signal despite the market already moving from 10-16¢ to 22¢.
$232,828Score: 96.0 - US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A 19-wallet cluster, including 6 linked wallets and several profitable cross-market traders, put $352.9k behind Yes around 18-22¢, showing coordinated conviction on a geopolitics market despite some wallets reopening prior positions.
$352,893Score: 66.0 - 6-wallet geopolitical NO cluster
Six wallets put over $56k on No across this geopolitics market, and several are experienced cross-market traders with strong hit rates across related Iran event markets.
$56,368Score: 45.7 - US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
A 12-wallet cluster put $86.5k behind No across this geopolitics market, with several repeat cross-market traders and at least two proven profitable wallets, making it a notable coordinated thesis despite mixed wallet quality.
$86,529Score: 33.0 - 4-wallet ceasefire cluster
Four wallets piled into Yes for $16.6k on a geopolitics market, led by a high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and reinforced by coordinated one-sided flow.
$16,597Score: 26.5 - 5-wallet NO cluster
Five wallets, including one with a 69% win rate and $729k profit, piled into NO around 68-72¢ with two linked by funder, creating a credible coordinated directional signal on a major geopolitics market.
$13,495Score: 26.4 - US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Multiple profitable wallets re-entered the same ceasefire market on the Yes side, led by one bettor with an 87% win rate and a broader 7-market event thesis.
$38,143Score: 23.2 - US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Three experienced cross-market traders all added fresh bullish exposure to a major geopolitics market around 21-23¢, including one wallet with an 83% win rate, making this coordinated Yes flow worth watching.
$13,658Score: 22.1 - 4-wallet geopolitical cluster
Four wallets aligned on No, including a serial cross-market trader with a perfect resolved record and a brand-new wallet sizing in, making this coordinated geopolitical flow worth watching despite one leg being a position exit.
$10,794Score: 20.5 - US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Three experienced cross-market traders flipped into the ceasefire Yes side with $115k total, including two large No sells that translate to buying Yes around 20¢ in a major event market.
$115,136Score: 20.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$213,397 · 5 markets · 32 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x49b306…6486$207,241 · 2 markets · 6 alerts · 36% wins
- 0x129a74…9fb6$193,062 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x5b4c67…6829$179,359 · 1 market · 6 alerts
- 0x848921…c184$84,677 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xef8310…96ec$82,923 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x50eb8c…fc67$79,191 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x00425c…321e$75,554 · 3 markets · 8 alerts · 51% wins
- 0xcf6087…47ce$63,722 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 54% wins
- 0xad1425…bf69$62,197 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
The odds vary by deadline, because each child market asks whether an official US-Iran ceasefire happens by a specific date. PolySpotter aggregates the event so you can compare how traders are pricing near-term deadlines versus later dates like June 30 or December 31.
What counts as a US-Iran ceasefire for these markets?
The event requires an official ceasefire agreement: a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, with clear confirmation from both the U.S. government and Iran’s government before the listed deadline.
What is the smart money doing on the US-Iran ceasefire markets?
PolySpotter has tracked more than $3.5M in smart money across this event, including multiple geopolitical wallet clusters and several NO clusters. That suggests sophisticated traders are actively positioning around whether a ceasefire is likely by each deadline.
Why are there multiple US-Iran ceasefire markets?
Each market covers a different resolution date, such as April 7, April 15, May 31, June 30, or December 31. Together, they show not just whether traders expect a ceasefire, but when they think it could happen.
When do the US-Iran ceasefire markets resolve?
Each child market resolves after its listed deadline at 11:59 PM ET, based on whether both governments clearly and publicly confirmed an official ceasefire agreement by that time.