Part of: US x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
41 smart money signals detected, totaling $926,458.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Middle East, Iran, Diplomacy & Ceasefire
Notable Trades
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
An 83% win-rate trader with nearly $1M deployed across 25 events is revisiting this geopolitical market by selling Yes at 10¢, a strong cross-market signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 223 markets and has deployed about $947k across 25 events.
- They sold Yes at 10¢, which is effectively a bet on No at a very favorable price in a major geopolitics market.
- They have traded 5 markets tied to this same event for $28k total, showing a broader event-level thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$3,112 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven high-win-rate cross-market trader sold No at 87¢ in a major geopolitics market, and the price has already moved in their favor to 78¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 891 bets and has tracked a $126k profit
- They sold No at 87¢ in a liquid geopolitics market, and No has already dropped to 78¢ after their trade
- This wallet has traded 102 markets across 51 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven edge rather than a one-off punt
$33,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven 85% winner is building a broader multi-market geopolitical thesis here, adding a sizable No position despite rich odds, which is worth monitoring even without stronger market-structure signals.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $21.8k across 47 settled markets
- They placed $18.7k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 88¢, implying they saw the ceasefire chance as much lower than the market price
$6,148 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A repeat new wallet has already put over $100k into flagged trades and just made a large fresh bet across related Iran markets, suggesting an active macro thesis worth tracking despite limited resolved history.
- This 19-day-old wallet has already made 12 flagged bets totaling $102k, which is unusually aggressive for a new account.
- It is betting across 3 related Iran markets with $21.8k total, pointing to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The trader sold Yes at 12¢, effectively backing No while the market now sits at 22¢.
$14,335 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 31%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A 5-day-old wallet has already deployed over $13.7k across related markets and just sold Yes at 13¢ on a major geopolitical market, suggesting repeat conviction from a new, active bettor.
- This 5-day-old wallet has already put $13.7k into flagged bets across 3 positions
- They sold Yes at 13¢, which is the same as buying No around 87¢ on this market
- The bet is meaningful but not routine for a new wallet, and it comes with related event positioning across 2 markets
$3,429 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven 75% win-rate trader with nearly $118k profit is making a fresh cross-market bet in a major geopolitics event, selling No at 86¢ before the market moved to 78¢.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 241 markets and is up about $118k
- They traded 7 markets tied to this event for $176k total, showing a broad event-level thesis rather than a one-off bet
- Sold No at 86¢ and the market is now 78¢, so the trade is already moving in their favor
$3,599 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor reopened a Yes position at 16¢ across a broader 4-market event thesis, and the market has already moved up to 22%.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $417k lifetime
- They reopened a Yes position at 16¢ after previously closing out, suggesting fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking
- The bet fits a 4-market event thesis worth $23.6k, and this market has already moved from 16¢ to 22¢
$4,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven high-volume trader with a 75% win rate reopened against the crowd by selling No at 88¢ on a geopolitics market they have already traded heavily, and the price has since moved sharply in their favor to 78¢.
- This bettor has won 180 of 241 resolved trades and has made about $118,000 overall
- They sold No at 88¢, which is the same as buying Yes at 12¢, and the market has already moved to 22¢ Yes
- They had already traded about $168,000 on this market before, so this looks like renewed conviction rather than a random one-off
$7,930 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A proven bettor with an 88% win rate is taking a sizable position on No in a geopolitics market, making this worth tracking despite only a moderate composite score.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $13.3k overall
- They put $14.0k on No in a major geopolitics market, showing real conviction
- They bought at 89¢, so the current 78¢ price is now even better than their entry
$14,033 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
A bettor with a 91% win rate and $412k profit is taking a fresh, high-conviction position against 'No' in a major geopolitics market at 88¢, making this worth watching despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $412k lifetime
- They sold No at 88¢, which is effectively a bullish bet on a ceasefire before March 31
- The market is deep and active, so a nearly $3.8k trade here looks more like conviction than a random poke
$3,797 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 57085616, $552,409 (86% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 57085616, $460,853 (85% win rate)
- 0x5188...c804 — Outcome 57085616, $296,607 (82% win rate)
- 0x2424...3b61 — Outcome 57085616, $200,693
- 0xfd2b...8e50 — Outcome 57085616, $168,574 (56% win rate)
- 0x58df...b4ad — Outcome 57085616, $156,764
- 0x593d...7d5d — Outcome 57085616, $107,636 (72% win rate)
- 0x12ee...780a — Outcome 57085616, $93,309
- 0xad2b...f091 — Outcome 57085616, $85,489 (93% win rate)
- 0x1a64...44ce — Outcome 57085616, $70,100