US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
17 signals across 3 markets · $87,778 tracked · resolves Sep 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the U.S. and Iran achieve an effective 14-day ceasefire by September 30, 2026. The event includes one market covering the “Yes” or “No” outcome, with PolySpotter tracking $16,449 in smart money and a linked cluster scaling into Yes.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Seven-wallet funded No cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned behind No, making this a notable coordinated position despite the trader's only moderate historical edge.
$1,768Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 10.0 - Seven-wallet No conviction cluster
Seven linked wallets and a sharp No price move make this coordinated positioning worth surfacing, despite the trader's mixed buy-sell activity and only market-rate historical record.
$3,321Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.9 - Seven-wallet funded No cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned behind No, making this a notable coordinated position despite the trader's only moderate historical edge.
$1,554Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.4 - Seven-wallet No conviction cluster
Seven linked wallets and a sharp No price move make this coordinated positioning worth surfacing, despite the trader's mixed buy-sell activity and only market-rate historical record.
$4,513Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 9.3 - Seven-wallet No conviction cluster
Seven linked wallets and a sharp No price move make this coordinated positioning worth surfacing, despite the trader's mixed buy-sell activity and only market-rate historical record.
$2,960Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Seven-wallet funded No cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned behind No, making this a notable coordinated position despite the trader's only moderate historical edge.
$3,021Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Linked wallets turning bearish on Yes
Four linked wallets coordinated a $16.2K exit from Yes, including several strong bettors, creating a meaningful bearish signal for the ceasefire outcome.
$27,175Score: 7.7 - Linked cluster scaling into Yes
Four linked wallets added $16.4K to Yes at 77¢, with three showing strong historical win rates and the market up 8% in one day.
$16,449Score: 7.5 - Four-wallet No conviction cluster
Four wallets concentrated $12.4K on No alongside a 20-point one-day move and a major volume spike, creating a credible coordinated directional signal despite mixed track records.
$7,342Score: 7.0 - Sharp bettor leads No cluster
Three wallets added $5.7K to No, including a highly profitable bettor with an exceptional 81% win rate and 46% edge over implied odds.
$5,723Score: 6.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe23495…304a$19,333 · 1 market · 8 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x524db8…4495$5,094 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 78% wins
- 0x8aaaac…51df$1,300 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
Polymarket traders are pricing the Yes and No outcomes for whether a continuous 14-day period without qualifying U.S. military action begins by September 30, 2026. Check the live market for the latest odds.
What is the US-Iran ceasefire prediction market asking?
The market resolves Yes if a continuous 14-day period without a qualifying U.S. military action against Iran begins by the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves No.
What is smart money doing in the US-Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter is tracking $16,449 in smart money across the event and one signal. The latest alert indicates a linked cluster is scaling into Yes.
When does the US-Iran ceasefire market resolve?
The market resolves by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, subject to the market’s 14-day ceasefire criteria.