Part of: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range will be exactly 3.75% after the Federal Reserve’s December 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves based on the Fed’s official post-meeting target range statement, with the key decision expected on December 9, 2026. Traders use this market to gauge Polymarket odds on where US interest rates will stand at the end of 2026.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,518.

Categories: Fed Rates, Economic Policy, Fed, Politics, Trump, Jerome Powell

Notable Trades

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Three wallets sold the same side within minutes for nearly $47k, driving a 409x volume spike in a macro market with modest liquidity, which looks like coordinated conviction worth watching despite limited wallet track records.

  • Three wallets hit the same side within 8 minutes for $46.9k total, a strong one-way bet on this Fed market
  • Their flow equaled more than double the market's 24h volume and far exceeded the $16.5k liquidity on the book
  • They sold at 72¢ and the market is now 76¢, showing the move had immediate follow-through

$46,851 on No

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Three wallets bought nearly $25k of NO at the same 71¢ price, dominating most of the day's volume in a macro market with decent liquidity, which points to coordinated conviction despite only modest wallet track records.

  • Three wallets piled into the same side within minutes, putting $24.7k into NO at 71¢
  • Their combined buying was about 71% of the market's 24-hour volume, a strong show of conviction
  • Two of the wallets have solid early records, including one at 78% wins and +$873 profit

$24,667 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $15,753
  2. 0xc6d0...4bad — Yes, $6,987
  3. 0xdd9c...31a0 — Yes, $4,167
  4. 0xaf45...ec7d — Yes, $3,372 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xe154...0b7f — No, $1,605
  6. 0xa309...4cf2 — Yes, $1,347
  7. 0xae89...90b8 — Yes, $1,309 (67% win rate)
  8. 0xa46c...8f85 — No, $1,000
  9. 0xe372...eb38 — Yes, $472
  10. 0xd49b...bdf9 — Yes, $460

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

213dWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?$71,518 tracked2 signalsFed RatesEconomic PolicyFedPoliticsTrumpJerome Powell
Yes
54¢
No
46¢

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Price History — “Yes”
59¢
54¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

45d ago

$46,851 on No at 72¢

72¢→46¢↓26¢

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

39d ago

$24,667 on No at 71¢

71¢→46¢↓25¢