Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
9 signals across 2 markets · $54,121 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Hamas will officially agree to disarm in the Gaza Strip by the stated deadline, with traders pricing the Yes/No outcome. PolySpotter is tracking $2,500 in smart-money activity, including a recent signal from a proven cross-market bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Four-wallet bearish Hamas cluster
A four-wallet No cluster includes highly profitable bettors, an 11,000-dollar concentrated position, and a 27x volume spike in a politically consequential market.
$10,578Score: 6.5 - Experienced wallets converge on Yes
Three experienced, high-volume wallets shifted nearly $20,000 toward Yes during a 15.4x volume spike, though their track records do not clearly prove an outsized edge.
$19,991Score: 6.4 - 82% win-rate serial trader backs No
A highly proven serial trader with an 82% win rate is selling Yes, reinforcing the market's recent move toward No despite the position's relatively modest size.
$1,281Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Serial bettor adds to Hamas Yes
A highly experienced serial trader with 539 resolved bets and a 73% win rate added $10,354 to an existing Yes position during a 99x volume spike.
$10,354Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.0 - 92% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing No position despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,146Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.3 - Serial 90% winner adds to Yes
A serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market already trading at 88%.
$2,510Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 4.3 - 92% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing No position despite recent Yes momentum.
$2,571Wallet win rate: 93%Score: 4.3 - Serial trader buys No
A proven serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate placed a fresh $3,190 No position in a relatively thin geopolitical market.
$3,190Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0 - Proven cross-market bettor
Near-sharp serial cross-market trader with a 74% record and positive lifetime P&L bought a meaningful No position on a geopolitics market.
$2,500Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x35bbba…009b$10,354 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$3,717 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xbd0477…fbb0$3,190 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x515e21…8309$2,510 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x8c57f6…f939$2,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$1,281 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds on Hamas agreeing to disarm?
The event reflects market-implied odds for whether Hamas officially announces a commitment to disarm in the Gaza Strip by the deadline. PolySpotter tracks the live market and highlights notable smart-money activity around the Yes and No outcomes.
What counts as Hamas agreeing to disarm?
The market is based on a credible official announcement from widely acknowledged Hamas leadership. A qualifying announcement would need to commit to relinquishing or dismantling its military presence in Gaza, either partially or completely, depending on the market rules.
Is smart money betting on this Hamas disarmament market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,500 in smart-money activity across this event, including one recent signal from a proven cross-market bettor. These signals can help users see when experienced traders are taking positions.
When does this Hamas disarmament market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2026. Resolution depends on whether the market’s criteria are met and verified according to the Polymarket rules.