Part of: Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether Hamas will officially announce a commitment to disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $2,500 in smart money across 1 signal, including activity from a proven cross-market bettor. The market resolves “Yes” only if a credible announcement from widely acknowledged Hamas leadership commits to relinquishing or dismantling its military presence in Gaza, partially or completely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,500.

Categories: Gaza, Geopolitics, Politics, Global, Foreign Policy, Israel

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market bettor

Near-sharp serial cross-market trader with a 74% record and positive lifetime P&L bought a meaningful No position on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 183 resolved bets and is up $58.7k lifetime.
  • They are a repeat cross-market trader, active across 31 events and $182k in tracked volume.
  • The $2.5k No buy was 52% of the alert’s measured daily volume, showing meaningful conviction.

$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

  1. 0x66d7...5b7b Yes, $19,244 (87% win rate)
  2. 0x65bf...4b91 Yes, $8,352
  3. 0x0dbd...f4a5 No, $7,906 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x32d1...b949 Yes, $7,470
  5. 0xd426...334a Yes, $6,830 (42% win rate)
  6. 0x60ad...23c5 No, $6,005
  7. 0x43ab...a0ef Yes, $5,918 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x6a94...730f No, $4,477 (100% win rate)
  9. 0xc1cf...9656 No, $3,986 (59% win rate)
  10. 0x4158...ce9f Yes, $3,855 (40% win rate)

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

17dWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?$2,500 tracked1 signalGazaGeopoliticsPoliticsGlobalForeign PolicyIsrael
Yes
7¢
No
93¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Price History — “No
98¢
90¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

3d ago

$2,500 on No at 87¢

87¢93¢6¢

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