Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
4 signals across 1 market · $70,752 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks the Polymarket prediction market on whether Hezbollah will officially announce it will disarm in Lebanon by the resolution deadline. Traders are pricing the binary outcome — Yes or No — with PolySpotter currently tracking $21,384 in smart money activity, including a recent whale backing No.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- New whale backs No
A brand-new wallet put meaningful size into No on a relatively quiet geopolitical market, driving a major volume spike despite having no resolved track record yet.
$21,384Score: 9.4 - New whale volume spike
New wallet put about $26k into No on a news-sensitive Hezbollah disarmament market during a 249x volume spike, making this a notable conviction bet despite no resolved track record.
$26,136Score: 7.9 - New whale buying No
A new repeat large-bet wallet is net buying $9.2k of No amid a major volume spike on a geopolitical market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
$13,728Score: 7.5 - Repeat new whale buying No
A repeat new large bettor put $9.5k into No amid a major volume spike, but the wallet has no resolved track record yet.
$9,504Score: 7.2
Top wallets in this event
- 0x2bb65e…398e$57,024 · 1 market · 3 alerts
- 0x2b0eed…a19e$13,728 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds on Hezbollah disarming?
The event centers on a Yes/No prediction market for whether Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by the stated deadline. PolySpotter tracks the live market pricing and smart money flow so you can see how traders are valuing each outcome.
What is the smart money doing in this Hezbollah disarmament market?
PolySpotter has tracked $21,384 in smart money activity across this event. The most recent alert shows a whale backing No, suggesting at least one large trader is positioning against Hezbollah making a qualifying disarmament announcement.
What counts as Hezbollah disarming for this market?
The market requires an official public commitment by Hezbollah leadership to relinquish its weapons in Lebanon. The announcement must be supported by the Secretary-General, a direct successor, or the widely acknowledged leadership if the role is vacant.
When does this Hezbollah disarmament market resolve?
The underlying market condition refers to a qualifying announcement by the specified deadline, and the event is listed with a resolution date of December 31, 2026. If the criteria are not met, the market resolves to No.
Why follow this event on PolySpotter?
PolySpotter highlights whale trades and smart money signals that may not be obvious from headline odds alone. For geopolitical markets like Hezbollah disarmament, those alerts can help traders understand whether large bettors are leaning Yes or No.