Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,446.

Categories: Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics, Ukraine

Notable Trades

Proven bettor buying NO

Surfacing despite a weak low-activity signal because the bettor has a 76% record across 50 resolved markets and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $19.2k lifetime.
  • They bought $1.3k of No on a quiet market, about one-third of the last 24h volume.
  • Entry at 80¢ implies a 25% payout if Kostyantynivka is not fully captured by the deadline.

$1,716 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Proven bettor buying NO

Surfacing despite a weak low-activity signal because the bettor has a 76% record across 50 resolved markets and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $19.2k lifetime.
  • They bought $1.3k of No on a quiet market, about one-third of the last 24h volume.
  • Entry at 80¢ implies a 25% payout if Kostyantynivka is not fully captured by the deadline.

$8,433 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Proven bettor buying NO

Surfacing despite a weak low-activity signal because the bettor has a 76% record across 50 resolved markets and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $19.2k lifetime.
  • They bought $1.3k of No on a quiet market, about one-third of the last 24h volume.
  • Entry at 80¢ implies a 25% payout if Kostyantynivka is not fully captured by the deadline.

$1,297 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x172b...a0c9 — Yes, $32,132
  2. 0x848d...35e6 — Yes, $5,129 (67% win rate)
  3. 0xfb24...c4bf — Yes, $3,701
  4. 0xc2f0...8f93 — Yes, $1,939
  5. 0x74db...4ca5 — Yes, $1,507
  6. 0x3879...d8c3 — Yes, $1,000
  7. 0x56c2...6219 — Yes, $1,000
  8. 0x0ff1...7234 — Yes, $1,000
  9. 0x7727...15a4 — Yes, $818 (65% win rate)
  10. 0xbeda...d080 — Yes, $770

Related Theses

Russia won't capture Kostyantynivka

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Trump avoids June Middle East talks

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?$11,446 tracked3 signalsPoliticsUkraine MapGeopoliticsUkraine
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-06 10:26 UTC

$1,716 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-01 12:21 UTC

$8,433 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

2026-06-27 17:30 UTC

$1,297 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

Related Theses