Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026, based on the ISW map. It resolves “Yes” only if all of the municipality is shaded red on ISW by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,297 in smart money activity, including a recent signal from a proven bettor buying NO.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,297.

Categories: Ukraine, Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven bettor buying NO

Surfacing despite a weak low-activity signal because the bettor has a 76% record across 50 resolved markets and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $19.2k lifetime.
  • They bought $1.3k of No on a quiet market, about one-third of the last 24h volume.
  • Entry at 80¢ implies a 25% payout if Kostyantynivka is not fully captured by the deadline.

$1,297 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x172b...a0c9 Yes, $12,073
  2. 0x8f69...7df1 No, $10,069 (68% win rate)
  3. 0x5c08...eba9 Yes, $4,182
  4. 0x9631...89a1 No, $4,113 (94% win rate)
  5. 0xfb24...c4bf Yes, $3,701
  6. 0xe0f1...c4bd No, $3,150 (66% win rate)
  7. 0xb5fa...a1dd Yes, $2,617
  8. 0x94d0...9e65 No, $2,000 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $1,800 (59% win rate)
  10. 0xc984...37ca No, $1,621 (73% win rate)

Related Theses

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Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

72dWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?$1,297 tracked1 signalUkrainePoliticsUkraine MapGeopolitics
Yes
16¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Price History — “No
89¢
85¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?

21d ago

$1,297 on No at 80¢

80¢85¢5¢

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