Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
3 signals across 1 market · $44,768 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- New whale buying quiet NO
A 20-day-old repeat large bettor put $10k on No in a quiet political market, over 7x the market's 24h volume.
$10,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 6.5 - Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
A 5-day-old wallet has already made four large bets and just put $17.1k into NO at 86¢ on a major geopolitical market, suggesting repeat high-conviction positioning worth watching despite limited track record.
$17,100Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 5.5 - New whale buying NATO withdrawal
A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and just made a $17.7k bearish trade against the market favorite, suggesting fresh conviction despite only a limited early track record.
$17,668Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 5.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa30e45…49d5$34,768 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0x51f20d…cc8b$10,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins