US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,158.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

93% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A bettor with an exceptional 93% win rate and 808 resolved markets is taking a fresh Yes position in a geopolitically news-driven market at a low price.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades across 808 resolved markets and is up $57k
  • They bought Yes at 20¢ in a news-driven US-Iran market, implying they see the odds as meaningfully too low
  • This is part of a 2-market event thesis, suggesting a broader view rather than a random one-off bet

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate and $1.13M in profits made a sizable directional bet on No in a geopolitics market, despite paying above the current market price.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
  • They trade across 136 markets in 84 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 80¢ in a geopolitics market now trading 74¢, showing strong conviction even after a sharp move

$2,658 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x907d...20c4 Outcome 86993504, $50,958
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 86993504, $40,850 (86% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 Outcome 74693616, $32,581 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x9036...71e8 Outcome 86993504, $23,093
  5. 0x5139...9402 Outcome 86993504, $20,000
  6. 0x56f0...3068 Outcome 86993504, $18,068
  7. 0x94eb...37e6 Outcome 74693616, $10,001
  8. 0xf915...8720 Outcome 74693616, $10,000
  9. 0xd426...334a Outcome 86993504, $8,992 (35% win rate)
  10. 0x5ccf...79d7 Outcome 86993504, $6,330 (69% win rate)

Related Theses

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

Resolved$4,158 tracked2 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

2d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?

2d ago

$2,658 on No at 80¢

Related Theses