US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,158.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
93% win-rate geopolitical bettor
A bettor with an exceptional 93% win rate and 808 resolved markets is taking a fresh Yes position in a geopolitically news-driven market at a low price.
- This bettor wins 93% of their trades across 808 resolved markets and is up $57k
- They bought Yes at 20¢ in a news-driven US-Iran market, implying they see the odds as meaningfully too low
- This is part of a 2-market event thesis, suggesting a broader view rather than a random one-off bet
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
88% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate and $1.13M in profits made a sizable directional bet on No in a geopolitics market, despite paying above the current market price.
- This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up $1.13M lifetime
- They trade across 136 markets in 84 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 80¢ in a geopolitics market now trading 74¢, showing strong conviction even after a sharp move
$2,658 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x907d...20c4 — Outcome 86993504, $50,958
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 86993504, $40,850 (86% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Outcome 74693616, $32,581 (47% win rate)
- 0x9036...71e8 — Outcome 86993504, $23,093
- 0x5139...9402 — Outcome 86993504, $20,000
- 0x56f0...3068 — Outcome 86993504, $18,068
- 0x94eb...37e6 — Outcome 74693616, $10,001
- 0xf915...8720 — Outcome 74693616, $10,000
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 86993504, $8,992 (35% win rate)
- 0x5ccf...79d7 — Outcome 86993504, $6,330 (69% win rate)
