Part of: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $178,113.

Categories: Geopolitics, Hezbollah, Israel, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon

Notable Trades

83% win-rate geopolitics trader

A proven 83% win-rate cross-market trader sold Yes at 40¢, which translates to buying No at 60¢ on a major geopolitics market with strong recent movement.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades across 149 markets and has a strong history across 72 events.
Their sell of Yes at 40¢ is effectively a buy on No at 60¢, showing a clear view that no ceasefire extension happens by April 26.
The market is active and news-driven, with nearly $1.0M of 24-hour volume and a 21-point move in one day, so this is a thesis worth tracking.

$1,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

74% winner flips to No

A proven high-volume cross-market winner with a 74% win rate closed out of Yes and opened a fresh $4.4k No position in a major geopolitics market at 64¢.

This bettor has won 241 of 326 resolved markets and made about $221k in profit
They previously closed a Yes position and now opened a fresh $4.4k No bet, showing a clear directional switch
The market is active and liquid, so buying No at 64¢ looks like a deliberate view rather than noise

$4,373 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

74% winner flips to No

A proven high-volume bettor with a 74% win rate flipped from a prior Yes position into No on this active geopolitics market, suggesting a deliberate thesis change worth watching despite only one signal.

This bettor has won 241 of 326 resolved trades and is up about $222k lifetime
They closed an earlier Yes position and opened a fresh $2.6k No bet, showing a clear change in view
Bought No at 63¢ in a heavily traded news market, implying they see the ceasefire extension as less likely than the market had priced

$2,616 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

New whale pressing No

A 4-hour-old wallet repeatedly deployed $25k into No on a major geopolitics market during a 21.7x volume spike, signaling fresh high-conviction positioning worth watching.

A 4-hour-old wallet put $25,000 into No in five straight buys and has already been flagged 12 times for large early bets.
The market saw a 21.7x volume spike, so this bettor is joining a sudden rush of money on a real-world geopolitical event.
They paid 57¢ to 65¢ for No with the market now at 62¢, showing aggressive conviction rather than passive nibbling.

$25,000 on No

Repeat new-wallet whale

A repeatedly flagged new wallet is making another sizable bet, buying No at 76¢ on a major geopolitics market after already deploying roughly $77k across 7 positions.

This new wallet has already been flagged 18 times and has put about $77k to work across 7 positions
They just bought $7k of No at 76¢ in a major geopolitics market, showing concentrated conviction rather than a tiny test trade
The wallet is 2 for 2 on resolved bets and up about $12.9k, an early sign this bettor may have an edge

$7,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Repeat new wallet whale

A very new wallet that has already fired 12 large-bet alerts put $19.1k into Yes on a major geopolitical market during a 21x volume spike, signaling fresh high-conviction positioning despite limited proof of skill so far.

This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 12 large-bet alerts and put $19.1k into this side
bullet converted sells: most of the size came from selling No between 52¢ and 72¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes
The market saw a 21x volume spike, and this bettor's average entry was around 59¢ versus 30¢ now

$19,104 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A very new wallet has repeatedly deployed nearly $70k across 17 flagged bets and just put $30k into No on this geopolitics market as the odds were collapsing, showing strong conviction despite limited history.

This new wallet has already triggered 17 large-bet alerts, with nearly $70k flagged across 7 positions.
They just bought $30k of No as the market moved hard in that direction, adding at 77¢, 79¢, and 86¢.
The market still prices No at 84¢, so this bettor is backing the ceasefire extension as unlikely.

$30,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale pressing No

A very active new wallet has already put nearly $70k into flagged trades and just made a $20k bet against a ceasefire extension after the market collapsed, suggesting strong conviction rather than routine flow.

This new wallet has already triggered 17 large-bet alerts and put nearly $70k into flagged trades
It just placed a concentrated $20k buy on No at 86¢, almost half of the market's visible liquidity
The market has fallen 32 points in a day, and this bettor is still leaning into the move with size

$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A very new wallet has already placed 16 large flagged bets totaling nearly $50k and just put another $5k into No after a sharp market drop, suggesting repeat high-conviction activity worth monitoring.

This new wallet has been flagged 16 times already, with nearly $50k in large bets across 7 positions
It is already up about $12.9k and has won 2 of 2 resolved markets, albeit on a small sample
The trader bought No at 79¢ after this market fell 24.5 points in a day, showing conviction on further downside for Yes

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Repeat new wallet whale

A repeat new-wallet bettor has already placed nearly $45k in flagged trades and just put $5k into No on a major geopolitics market after a sharp price drop, suggesting continued conviction rather than routine flow.

This new wallet has already triggered 15 large-bet alerts and put nearly $45k into flagged trades
It already shows early success with 2 wins from 2 resolved bets and about $12.9k in profit
The bettor bought No at 77¢ after the market fell 19 points in a day, adding size behind the current move

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0xbcd9...2835 — Outcome 22927363, $482,188
0x1fa1...1fa9 — Outcome 22927363, $400,000 (29% win rate)
0x9620...bc27 — Outcome 22927363, $115,000
0x4d33...aa06 — Outcome 22927363, $110,376
0x9010...d06f — Outcome 22927363, $110,000
0x2459...ac27 — Outcome 22927363, $101,613 (0% win rate)
0xa096...27e6 — Outcome 22927363, $100,000
0xd519...932c — Outcome 22927363, $100,000 (18% win rate)
0x72ef...f569 — Outcome 22927363, $100,000
0xa850...671c — Outcome 22927363, $88,686

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Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?$178,113 tracked21 signalsGeopoliticsHezbollahIsraelIran CeasefireIranLebanon

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 16 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed 10-day period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.