Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
This market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by the May 31, 2026 deadline. A “Yes” resolution requires an official Iranian pledge, either unilateral or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $10,764 in smart-money activity across 3 signals, with recent alerts showing high-win-rate traders buying NO.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,764.
Categories: Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran
Notable Trades
98% winner buying NO
A wallet flagged with an exceptional 45/46 resolved-bet record is buying No on a geopolitics market at 82¢.
- This bettor has won 45 of 46 resolved bets, far above what their entry prices implied.
- They put $3.2K on No at 82¢, taking the high-probability side in a serious geopolitics market.
- The market is liquid and steady, so the main signal is the trader’s unusually strong track record.
$3,157 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
98% winner buying NO
A wallet flagged with an exceptional 45/46 resolved-bet record bought $5.0k of No at 87¢ on a clear geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 45 of 46 resolved bets in the tracker, far better than the odds they usually take.
- They put $5.0k on No at 87¢, reinforcing the market’s current 86% No view.
- Entry at 87¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet with about 15% upside if it resolves No.
$5,046 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Moderately interesting because a highly active, profitable cross-market trader with a long history is buying No on a geopolitical market near 88¢.
- This bettor has traded 337 markets across 145 events and is up about $237K lifetime.
- They win 68% of resolved bets across 1,315 outcomes, suggesting a strong repeatable track record.
- A $2.6K buy at 88¢ signals they expect Iran not to agree to end uranium enrichment by May 31.
$2,561 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $65,026 (48% win rate)
- 0x136a...88ee — No, $57,224 (100% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $47,184 (53% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $32,156 (68% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — No, $23,586 (46% win rate)
- 0xd48a...6e90 — No, $20,621 (67% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $17,589 (37% win rate)
- 0xef9f...8924 — Yes, $15,373
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $15,000 (70% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — Yes, $12,973 (47% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closure risk delayed
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