Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
7 signals across 1 market · $19,435 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This prediction market tracks whether Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, including as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel. PolySpotter is currently tracking $10,764 in smart money activity across 3 signals, with recent alerts highlighting high-win-rate traders buying NO.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 78% resolved record sold No, implying a copyable Yes entry at 14¢, though this appears to be closing an existing No position rather than a fresh long Yes bet.
$4,972Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial geopolitics trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering Yes at 10¢ after previously closing a much larger position, making this a modest but track-record-backed geopolitical bet.
$1,284Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the position size is modest and the signal is mostly wallet-quality driven.
$1,316Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - 98% winner buying NO
A wallet flagged with an exceptional 45/46 resolved-bet record bought $5.0k of No at 87¢ on a clear geopolitics market.
$5,046Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.0 - 98% winner buying NO
A wallet flagged with an exceptional 45/46 resolved-bet record is buying No on a geopolitics market at 82¢.
$3,157Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Moderately interesting because a highly active, profitable cross-market trader with a long history is buying No on a geopolitical market near 88¢.
$2,561Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the individual bet size is modest.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x136a5f…88ee$8,203 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x4133f8…ea5d$4,972 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$3,876 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$1,284 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0xd44e97…67e2$1,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by May 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders are pricing the chance that Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by the May 31, 2026 deadline. Check the market price for the latest implied probability and direction.
What does this Iran enrichment market resolve on?
It resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, whether through a unilateral pledge or an agreement involving the U.S. or Israel. If no qualifying public agreement or pledge happens by the deadline, it resolves to No.
What is the smart money doing in this market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show notable smart money leaning toward NO, including buying from a 98% winner and a profitable serial cross-market bettor. In total, PolySpotter has tracked $10,764 in smart money activity across 3 signals for this event.
Why are traders betting NO on Iran ending uranium enrichment?
NO buyers are effectively betting that Iran will not make a qualifying public pledge to end all uranium enrichment before the deadline. The recent alerts suggest some high-performing traders see the agreement threshold as difficult to meet.
When does the Iran uranium enrichment prediction market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying public agreement or pledge occurs by May 31, 2026. The key factor is the announcement date, not necessarily when any agreement would go into effect.