Three wallets bought nearly $18.8k of No at the same time during a 236x volume spike. One 21-day-old wallet is already up $15.2k and made the biggest buy at 63¢. Their entries at 57-63¢ are already marked up to 68¢, showing the market moved their way fast.

Part of: Hungary Election: TISZA wins___seats?

Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least the listed number of seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $29,236.

Categories: Elections, Magyar, Politics, Hungary Election, Global Elections, Orban, Hungary, Fidesz

Notable Trades

Profitable thesis trader flips long

A proven profitable cross-market trader flipped into Yes at 82¢ just before a major breakout to 91% in a politically meaningful market, suggesting fresh conviction rather than routine flow.

This bettor has a long record: 68% win rate across 762 resolved markets and about $862k in profit.
They bought Yes at 82¢ before the market jumped nearly 30 points and now trades around 91¢.
They had previously closed a No position here, so this looks like a fresh directional switch rather than profit-taking.

$2,694 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable trader flipped bullish

A profitable, highly active political trader flipped from a prior No position to a fresh Yes buy at 59¢ before a major repricing to 85%, making this a strong thesis-driven trade worth surfacing.

This bettor has won 68% of 762 resolved trades and is up $861k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 59¢ and the market is now 85%, a fast 26-point move in their favor.
They trade across 89 related markets and 63 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven edge.

$4,177 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

3-wallet No cluster

Three wallets piled nearly $19k into No during a massive volume spike, and one profitable new wallet appears to be leading the move in a market with only moderate liquidity.

Three wallets bought nearly $18.8k of No at the same time during a 236x volume spike.
One 21-day-old wallet is already up $15.2k and made the biggest buy at 63¢.
Their entries at 57-63¢ are already marked up to 68¢, showing the market moved their way fast.

$18,773 on No

Profitable election specialist flips long

Profitable high-volume political trader with a strong cross-market track record flipped into a fresh Yes position during an extreme volume spike, making this worth watching despite the modest size.

This bettor has won 68% of 762 resolved trades and is up about $862k overall.
They opened a fresh Yes position after previously closing a much larger No bet, showing a real change in view rather than routine holding.
The market saw a 236x volume spike, and their 40¢ entry implies they believed the odds were meaningfully higher than the market now does.

$1,896 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable new wallet pressing NO

A very new wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets, is already profitable, and is adding another meaningful position in a politically relevant market at a liquid price.

This 8-day-old wallet has already been flagged 7 times, with $37.7k in notable bets and $1.5k profit so far.
It has won all 3 resolved markets so far and is now buying No at 68¢ in a major Hungary election market.
The bet is not huge versus market liquidity, but repeated sizing from a new profitable wallet suggests real conviction.

$1,696 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%