Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Ivan Cepeda Castro will win Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, including a potential second-round runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026. The market resolves to the winning candidate once the official result is known, or to “Other” if no result is known by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $4,960 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,670.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
89% serial election bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate bought nearly $5k of No, more than a full day’s recent market volume, on a Colombian election market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 451 resolved markets across hundreds of events.
- They bought $4,960 of No, larger than the market’s measured 24h volume in the signal.
- Entry at 62¢ suggests a high-conviction view that Cepeda Castro does not win.
$4,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
80% winner buying YES
A highly profitable wallet with an 80% lifetime win rate is effectively buying Yes at 41¢ and has related positioning across the same election event.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $638K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 41¢ after 1,115 resolved positions.
- The wallet has $7.2K positioned across related Colombian election markets.
$2,364 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
80% win-rate election sharp
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 80% win rate and $623k P&L is buying No in a major 2026 Colombia election market, making this a credible copy-trade signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades and is up $623k across 1,069 resolved positions.
- They bought No at 61¢ in a major election market, so the trade likely reflects a real view rather than noise.
- This wallet is also trading related markets around the same event, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$1,212 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
80% winner buying No
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 80% win rate and $617k realized profit is buying No at 60¢ in this Colombia election market, making it a credible copy-trade despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades across 1,049 resolved markets and is up $617k lifetime
- They bought No at 60¢, implying they think Ivan Cepeda is overpriced near 40%
- The wallet is also trading related election markets with the same strong track record
$1,567 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
87% win-rate event trader
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is expressing a broad event-level thesis across 16 related Colombia 2026 markets, and this trade is a fresh buy of No despite having previously closed the opposite side.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $351k lifetime
- They have traded 16 markets tied to this election event for $31.6k, showing a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This is a fresh No position at 66¢ after previously closing a Yes bet, signaling a meaningful view change
$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
85% win-rate cross-market bettor
An 85% win-rate trader with activity across 27 events is taking the Yes side here via a sell of No, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $25k overall
- They have bet across 27 events and 34 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 37¢, a clear directional view against a market that has drifted down 10 points this week
$1,133 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
85% win-rate macro bettor
A proven 85% win-rate trader with activity across 33 related markets is buying No at 62¢ in a major 2026 Colombia election market, making this a credible directional signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $25k overall
- They've traded 33 markets across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process
- They bought No at 62¢ in a major political market with solid liquidity, signaling a bearish view on Cepeda
$1,114 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $242,691
- 0xdbd0...2e83 — Yes, $137,848
- 0x54ce...9f80 — No, $63,777 (36% win rate)
- 0x682d...31ab — Yes, $41,986 (81% win rate)
- 0x3e0a...b9cc — Yes, $36,664 (73% win rate)
- 0x7a5d...460f — Yes, $18,693 (89% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $14,000 (89% win rate)
- 0xc01f...cd8e — Yes, $9,735 (63% win rate)
- 0x72f7...92f7 — No, $9,540 (48% win rate)
- 0x3dca...3c13 — Yes, $9,338 (81% win rate)
Related Theses
De la Espriella loses Colombia
Covers 16 related markets
