Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
This prediction market tracks whether Ivan Cepeda Castro will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election, including any required second round. The market is set to resolve based on the official winner of the election, with the runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026 if no candidate wins outright in the first round on May 31, 2026. If the result is still unknown by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to "Other."
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,566.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia
Notable Trades
87% win-rate event trader
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is expressing a broad event-level thesis across 16 related Colombia 2026 markets, and this trade is a fresh buy of No despite having previously closed the opposite side.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $351k lifetime
- They have traded 16 markets tied to this election event for $31.6k, showing a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This is a fresh No position at 66¢ after previously closing a Yes bet, signaling a meaningful view change
$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
85% win-rate cross-market bettor
An 85% win-rate trader with activity across 27 events is taking the Yes side here via a sell of No, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $25k overall
- They have bet across 27 events and 34 markets, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 37¢, a clear directional view against a market that has drifted down 10 points this week
$1,133 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
85% win-rate macro bettor
A proven 85% win-rate trader with activity across 33 related markets is buying No at 62¢ in a major 2026 Colombia election market, making this a credible directional signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $25k overall
- They've traded 33 markets across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process
- They bought No at 62¢ in a major political market with solid liquidity, signaling a bearish view on Cepeda
$1,114 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $203,247
- 0xdbd0...2e83 — Yes, $131,504
- 0x54ce...9f80 — No, $39,081 (36% win rate)
- 0x682d...31ab — Yes, $37,761 (81% win rate)
- 0x3e0a...b9cc — Yes, $29,830 (72% win rate)
- 0x7a5d...460f — Yes, $13,719
- 0x72f7...92f7 — No, $9,180 (48% win rate)
- 0x59d6...62c8 — No, $8,994
- 0xf1f9...1245 — No, $7,515 (56% win rate)
- 0xc01f...cd8e — Yes, $7,104 (71% win rate)
