Part of: Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,392.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Politics, Agreement, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Middle East, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

2-day wallet buying long-shot Yes

A very new wallet with repeated flagged large bets is taking a contrarian Yes position in a near-term Iran negotiations market.

  • A 2-day-old wallet has now made 13 flagged bets totaling $22.7k.
  • It bought Yes at 9¢ on a geopolitics market that resolves by June 30.
  • Entry below the current 11¢ odds suggests a cheap long-shot position on talks breaking down.

$1,392 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1dab...840b — Yes, $3,182 (53% win rate)
  2. 0x9b5f...11c5 — Yes, $3,045
  3. 0xd57e...6a11 — Yes, $2,731
  4. 0x3d14...ee01 — Yes, $2,463 (69% win rate)
  5. 0x770e...7640 — Yes, $2,001 (25% win rate)
  6. 0x6c92...9627 — Yes, $1,735
  7. 0x70ff...b65f — Yes, $1,485
  8. 0xd426...334a — Yes, $1,250 (51% win rate)
  9. 0xd1f7...c8e4 — Yes, $1,143
  10. 0xd547...8790 — Yes, $1,124

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Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?$1,392 tracked1 signalIranTrumpPoliticsAgreementPeace DealGeopoliticsMiddle EastU.S. x Iran
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.

Notable Trades

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

2026-06-27 22:05 UTC

$1,392 on Yes at 9¢

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