Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Profitable 75% bettor
A profitable bettor with a 75% record is buying No in a thin, wide-spread market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26k lifetime.
- The $2k No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to nearly half of 24h volume.
- Buying No at 81¢ shows confidence that no major Israeli airspace closure happens by the deadline.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $42,669 (69% win rate)
- 0xc390...2a1f — Yes, $14,875
- 0x6e37...2849 — Yes, $13,956
- 0xb8d2...c66b — No, $10,429 (72% win rate)
- 0xff91...a1ed — Yes, $9,721 (71% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $7,008 (93% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — No, $5,932 (59% win rate)
- 0x836f...906e — Yes, $4,902 (95% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — Yes, $4,572 (30% win rate)
- 0xe958...66b7 — No, $4,420 (66% win rate)
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Iran deal in early June
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Israel closes airspace in July
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