Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable 75% bettor

A profitable bettor with a 75% record is buying No in a thin, wide-spread market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26k lifetime.
  • The $2k No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to nearly half of 24h volume.
  • Buying No at 81¢ shows confidence that no major Israeli airspace closure happens by the deadline.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 No, $42,669 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xc390...2a1f Yes, $14,875
  3. 0x6e37...2849 Yes, $13,956
  4. 0xb8d2...c66b No, $10,429 (72% win rate)
  5. 0xff91...a1ed Yes, $9,721 (71% win rate)
  6. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $7,008 (93% win rate)
  7. 0x4478...02a4 No, $5,932 (59% win rate)
  8. 0x836f...906e Yes, $4,902 (95% win rate)
  9. 0xcb4c...6d64 Yes, $4,572 (30% win rate)
  10. 0xe958...66b7 No, $4,420 (66% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal in early June

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Israel closes airspace in July

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Mojtaba stays out of sight

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Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$2,000 tracked1 signalIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
40¢
No
60¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
80¢
67¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

19d ago

$2,000 on No at 81¢

81¢60¢21¢

Related Theses