How does this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to Yes if a qualifying 14-day uninterrupted pause in military action begins at any time between market creation and June 30, 2026, and continues through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the last qualifying strike.

Does a ceasefire announcement guarantee a Yes resolution?

No. A formal ceasefire or public announcement alone is not enough unless it leads to the required 14-day stretch without qualifying military action under the market rules.

When does the market resolve?

The market’s resolution date is June 30, 2026, though the exact outcome depends on whether the required 14-day no-action window occurs within the timeframe set by the rules.

Why are traders watching this Polymarket closely?

This market gives a real-time view of how traders assess the chances of de-escalation between Iran, Israel, and the US. It is especially relevant for people following Middle East geopolitics, ceasefire odds, and conflict-related prediction markets.

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Q: What does this Iran-Israel conflict prediction market measure?

This market measures whether there will be a continuous 14-day period without qualifying military action between Iran and Israel/the United States, with that period beginning before the June 30, 2026 deadline.

This Polymarket asks whether the Iran-Israel/US conflict will effectively end by June 30, 2026, based on whether there is a continuous 14-day stretch with no qualifying military action. Traders are pricing the odds of a sustained halt in hostilities before the deadline, making this market a live read on expectations for de-escalation in the region. Resolution depends on the market’s specific rules, not just a political announcement or informal ceasefire claim.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

22 smart money signals detected, totaling $103,275.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market conflict bettor

A proven 86% win-rate trader with a large cross-market conflict thesis sold Yes here, which maps to buying No around 23¢.

This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $333k across 77 resolved markets
They have put $73k across 6 related markets, suggesting a coordinated thesis on this conflict event
Selling Yes at 77¢ is equivalent to buying No at 23¢, a cheap entry if their broader view is right

$1,540 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

88% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is taking a fresh cross-market position on No in a major geopolitics event market at a low 15¢ price.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
They have put $156k across 4 related conflict markets, showing a consistent event-wide thesis.
Buying No at 15¢ implies they think the market is underpricing the chance the conflict does not end by June 30.

$2,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

87% winner adds thesis

A proven high-win-rate wallet is adding a same-event thesis on a major geopolitics market, making this modest but followable despite only a single signal.

This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up $188k overall
They bet $7.1k across 2 related conflict markets, suggesting a broader event view
Bought Yes at 88¢ in a deep, active market, so this looks like deliberate conviction rather than a random punt

$3,947 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Perfect-record geopolitics bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a perfect 26-for-26 resolved record bought Yes at 84¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a strong follow despite the moderate ticket size.

This bettor is 26 for 26 on resolved markets and has made $31k profit
They trade across many related markets and events, with nearly $1.0M in total volume
Bought Yes at 84¢ in a deep, active market, suggesting a high-confidence but lower-upside position

$2,003 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

26-0 geopolitics bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a perfect 26-for-26 resolved record bought Yes at 79¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite the moderate signal score.

This bettor is 26 for 26 on resolved markets and has made about $31k profit
They have traded 34 markets across 32 events for nearly $1.0M total, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
They bought Yes at 79¢ in a deep, active market, suggesting they still see value even after the contract moved higher

$5,848 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

97% win-rate event trader

A very high-win-rate wallet with a proven event-trading pattern bought No at 24¢ in this conflict market and the price has already moved in their favor to 16¢.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up about $40.8k overall
They have placed $53.6k across 4 related markets in the same event, showing a clear thesis rather than a one-off bet
They bought No at 24¢ and the market is now 16¢, so the trade is already moving their way

$3,577 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Sharp bettor buying Yes

A bettor with an 86% win rate and strong edge is buying into a fast-rising geopolitical market, making this a credible sharp-flow signal despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $20k overall
They bought Yes at 90¢ even after a 26.5-point one-day jump, showing conviction the market is still underpriced
The market is deep and active, so this looks more like a deliberate sharp entry than a random punt

$1,939 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

13-wallet geopolitical cluster

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader from a 13-wallet funded cluster sold Yes at 61¢, which converts to a copyable No buy at 39¢ in a major geopolitics market.

This wallet wins 69% of resolved bets across 336 markets and is up $55k lifetime
13 linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign of coordinated conviction
This trade sold Yes at 61¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 39¢ in a liquid geopolitics market

$3,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

84% win-rate geopolitical bettor

An 84% win-rate wallet with $275k in profit is adding a sizable fresh position on a serious geopolitics market, which is worth surfacing despite the alert being driven by a single cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $275k lifetime.
They just put $8k into Yes at 61¢ on a real-world geopolitics market.
The wallet is betting across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.

$8,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

84% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven profitable wallet with an 84% win rate is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet, which is notable even though the market itself is liquid and the alert is driven by a single strategy.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $275k across 70 settled markets
They are betting across 2 related Iran conflict markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off trade
Bought Yes at 61¢ in a deep market, showing conviction that the ceasefire window is more likely than current pricing implies

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%