Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
319 signals across 7 markets · $1,466,264 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Markets (7)
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?135 signals · $659,497 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?75 signals · $344,949 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?61 signals · $188,002 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?24 signals · $135,193 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?22 signals · $103,275 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?1 signal · $32,148 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?1 signal · $3,200 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 8-wallet geopolitical cluster
Eight wallets piled into Yes with $25k in a liquid geopolitics market, and several of them have strong cross-market track records and profitable histories on this event theme.
$25,483Score: 38.8 - 6-wallet contrarian cluster
Six wallets coordinated into No on a major geopolitics market, including several profitable cross-market traders with strong historical win rates, making this a credible contrarian cluster despite the market’s liquidity.
$13,918Score: 30.1 - 54-wallet linked cluster
A profitable 77%-win-rate trader joined a 54-wallet linked cluster pressing the same bearish view in a major geopolitics market, though this specific trade is partly profit-taking from an earlier Yes position.
$11,142Wallet win rate: 43%Score: 19.6 - Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets piled into No across this conflict event, led by an 88% win-rate trader with nearly $920k in profits and a strong history of cross-market event positioning.
$5,735Score: 18.1 - 18-wallet funded cluster
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader from an 18-wallet funded cluster is re-entering this conflict market with a fresh $5.3k Yes buy as the market trends higher.
$5,302Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 18.0 - Cross-market sharps buying No
Three wallets sold Yes into an 88% market, which translates to buying No around 13-14¢, and the cluster includes one proven high-volume 74% winner with a strong serial cross-market pattern across this event.
$17,688Score: 17.1 - 4-wallet conflict-market cluster
A 4-wallet cluster is collectively rotating into a bearish view on this conflict market with over $64k of one-sided flow across linked signals, even though the individual wallet track records are mixed.
$12,283Score: 16.6 - Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
A 4-wallet cluster with strong historical performance is reopening a coordinated bearish position across this event, putting $32k into No/SELL as the market moved sharply toward No.
$32,148Score: 16.4 - 88% winner flips to No
A high-win-rate wallet that has made $359k is taking a fresh bearish position into a major volume and price surge on a serious geopolitical market.
$1,007Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 16.0 - 4-wallet contrarian cluster
A 4-wallet cluster is collectively betting against the market’s dominant view across several related conflict markets, including fresh No buys around 34¢ that now look well-timed after the price moved to 22¢.
$6,486Score: 16.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$176,201 · 4 markets · 27 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x207cf4…93a8$102,984 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x8ccedc…5c11$92,439 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 97% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$85,784 · 4 markets · 46 alerts · 85% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$79,419 · 5 markets · 30 alerts · 88% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$68,912 · 3 markets · 14 alerts · 74% wins
- 0x6ea6e1…9261$67,978 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x3e5b23…073b$52,185 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$50,651 · 2 markets · 12 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xe7cb6e…d447$39,483 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 92% wins