Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
319 signals across 7 markets · $1,466,264 tracked · resolves Mar 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the Iran x Israel/US conflict has a continuous 14-day period without qualifying military action by several deadlines, including April 7, April 15, April 30, May 15, June 30, December 31, and March 31. PolySpotter monitors the full event hub, highlighting smart-money activity across all date markets, including recent linked-wallet clusters and sharp buying on “No.”
Markets (7)
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?135 signals · $659,497 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?75 signals · $344,949 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?61 signals · $188,002 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?24 signals · $135,193 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?22 signals · $103,275 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?1 signal · $32,148 tracked
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?1 signal · $3,200 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 8-wallet geopolitical cluster
Eight wallets piled into Yes with $25k in a liquid geopolitics market, and several of them have strong cross-market track records and profitable histories on this event theme.
$25,483Score: 38.8 - 6-wallet contrarian cluster
Six wallets coordinated into No on a major geopolitics market, including several profitable cross-market traders with strong historical win rates, making this a credible contrarian cluster despite the market’s liquidity.
$13,918Score: 30.1 - 54-wallet linked cluster
A profitable 77%-win-rate trader joined a 54-wallet linked cluster pressing the same bearish view in a major geopolitics market, though this specific trade is partly profit-taking from an earlier Yes position.
$11,142Wallet win rate: 51%Score: 19.6 - Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets piled into No across this conflict event, led by an 88% win-rate trader with nearly $920k in profits and a strong history of cross-market event positioning.
$5,735Score: 18.1 - 18-wallet funded cluster
A profitable high-volume cross-market trader from an 18-wallet funded cluster is re-entering this conflict market with a fresh $5.3k Yes buy as the market trends higher.
$5,302Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 18.0 - Cross-market sharps buying No
Three wallets sold Yes into an 88% market, which translates to buying No around 13-14¢, and the cluster includes one proven high-volume 74% winner with a strong serial cross-market pattern across this event.
$17,688Score: 17.1 - 4-wallet conflict-market cluster
A 4-wallet cluster is collectively rotating into a bearish view on this conflict market with over $64k of one-sided flow across linked signals, even though the individual wallet track records are mixed.
$12,283Score: 16.6 - Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
A 4-wallet cluster with strong historical performance is reopening a coordinated bearish position across this event, putting $32k into No/SELL as the market moved sharply toward No.
$32,148Score: 16.4 - 4-wallet contrarian cluster
A 4-wallet cluster is collectively betting against the market’s dominant view across several related conflict markets, including fresh No buys around 34¢ that now look well-timed after the price moved to 22¢.
$6,486Score: 16.0 - 88% winner flips to No
A high-win-rate wallet that has made $359k is taking a fresh bearish position into a major volume and price surge on a serious geopolitical market.
$1,007Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 16.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$176,201 · 4 markets · 27 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x207cf4…93a8$102,984 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x8ccedc…5c11$92,439 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 97% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$85,784 · 4 markets · 46 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x7f9e2d…3a0e$79,419 · 5 markets · 30 alerts · 87% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$68,912 · 3 markets · 14 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x6ea6e1…9261$67,978 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x3e5b23…073b$52,185 · 2 markets · 7 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$50,651 · 2 markets · 12 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xe7cb6e…d447$39,483 · 3 markets · 7 alerts · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran x Israel/US conflict end odds on Polymarket?
The odds are market-implied probabilities for whether the conflict meets the resolution condition by each listed deadline. Each child market prices a different “ends by” date, so traders can compare near-term and longer-term expectations.
What counts as the conflict “ending” for this market?
The market resolves “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period with no qualifying military action between Iran and Israel/the United States that begins within the market’s allowed window and lasts through the required cutoff.
What is smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter is tracking about $1.47M in smart-money activity and 319 signals across the event. Recent alerts include an 8-wallet geopolitical cluster, a 54-wallet linked cluster, an 18-wallet funded cluster, and sharp cluster buying on “No.”
What outcomes can traders bet on in this event hub?
The hub includes multiple Yes/No markets for whether the conflict ends by specific dates, such as April 7, April 15, April 30, May 15, June 30, December 31, and March 31.
When do these Iran x Israel/US markets resolve?
Each child market resolves according to its own deadline and the 14-day no-action rule. The broader event is listed with a final resolution date of March 31, 2026.