Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,046.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes

Notable Trades

New whale scaling into No

A very new wallet repeatedly deployed nearly $25,000 across three related Iran markets, adding $4,136 to an existing No position before the market repriced to certainty.

  • This 1-hour-old wallet has already flagged six large bets totaling $24,909 across three related markets.
  • It added $4,136 to an existing No position, with entries at 75¢ and 90¢ before No reached 100%.
  • The repeated, cross-market positioning shows strong directional conviction, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

$4,136 on No

New whale scaling into No

A brand-new wallet deployed $20.2K into No across four escalating buys, coinciding with a sharp repricing and an extreme volume spike.

  • A wallet less than an hour old committed $20,237 to No through four increasingly large buys.
  • The trades helped drive No from roughly 36% to 92%, alongside a 460x historical volume spike.
  • The wallet is also positioning across three related markets, suggesting a broader directional thesis despite having no resolved track record.

$20,237 on No

94% win-rate sharp buys Yes

A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $1,559 purchase of Yes at 88%.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 1,864 resolved positions and is up $880,219 lifetime.
  • The trader’s results imply a large edge over the roughly 60% average odds paid historically.
  • A fresh $1,559 Yes position follows a 33.5-point one-day market rise, reinforcing strong bullish momentum.

$1,559 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Coordinated Yes buying with a sharp trader

Three wallets added $13.1K to Yes during a 352x volume spike, including a serial trader with a 78% win rate and substantial profits.

  • Three wallets bought Yes for $13,114 during a volume spike 352 times the historical average.
  • One participant has won 78% of 106 resolved trades and is up $58,596.
  • All three wallets are adding to existing Yes positions around 85–86¢, signaling reinforced conviction rather than a one-off entry.

$13,114 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xe43e...97c2 Outcome 36883966, $50,726
  2. 0xd104...acef Outcome 36883966, $30,000 (89% win rate)
  3. 0xc15b...38af Outcome 36883966, $21,399 (81% win rate)
  4. 0xe738...df65 Outcome 36883966, $20,750 (63% win rate)
  5. 0x9c98...f4f4 Outcome 36883966, $10,253 (94% win rate)
  6. 0x4d70...2698 Outcome 36883966, $5,681 (61% win rate)
  7. 0x2a01...6397 Outcome 36883966, $5,524 (80% win rate)
  8. 0x5011...220e Outcome 36883966, $4,333 (57% win rate)
  9. 0xa108...abd3 Outcome 36883966, $4,211 (94% win rate)
  10. 0xf92a...a517 Outcome 36883966, $3,940 (93% win rate)

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US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

ResolvedUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?$39,046 tracked4 signalsIranTrumpIsraelMilitaryPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x IranMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
94¢
47¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

22d ago

$4,136 on No at 82¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

22d ago

$20,237 on No at 84¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

33d ago

$1,559 on Yes at 88¢

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

33d ago

$13,114 on Yes at 86¢

Related Theses