US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
32 signals across 4 markets · $332,724 tracked · resolves Oct 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30, 2026, or whether the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran before the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $29,080 in smart money across the event, including a recent signal showing a serial trader scaling into Yes.
Markets (4)
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?14 signals · $194,002 tracked
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?13 signals · $91,418 tracked
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?4 signals · $39,046 tracked
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?1 signal · $8,258 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Six-wallet cluster scaling into No
A six-wallet funded cluster is concentrating $9,294 into No, with two established holders adding to sizable positions despite limited price movement.
$9,294Score: 9.7 - Seven-wallet funded cluster buying Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is adding to a Yes position in a strongly rising geopolitical market, though the lead wallet's track record is only modestly better than its average winning entry price.
$10,241Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 9.6 - Seven-wallet funded cluster buying Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is adding to a Yes position in a strongly rising geopolitical market, though the lead wallet's track record is only modestly better than its average winning entry price.
$10,612Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 9.2 - Six-wallet funded cluster
A six-wallet common-funder cluster is taking a fresh No position in a consequential geopolitical market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong pricing edge.
$4,110Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 9.2 - Seven-wallet funded cluster buying Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is adding to a Yes position in a strongly rising geopolitical market, though the lead wallet's track record is only modestly better than its average winning entry price.
$8,081Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 8.7 - 7-wallet funded cluster
A seven-wallet funded cluster has deployed over $10,000 alongside a serial cross-market trader buying Yes at 83%, making this a notable coordinated geopolitical position despite only moderate historical accuracy.
$4,169Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 8.7 - Six-wallet funded cluster
A six-wallet common-funder cluster is taking a fresh No position in a consequential geopolitical market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong pricing edge.
$1,287Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 8.5 - Five-wallet coordinated Yes exit
Five wallets sold $65.6K of Yes in a 174x volume spike, including experienced cross-market traders, though prior Yes holdings suggest some of the flow may be profit-taking.
$65,640Score: 8.4 - New whale scaling into No
A brand-new wallet deployed $20.2K into No across four escalating buys, coinciding with a sharp repricing and an extreme volume spike.
$20,237Score: 8.2 - Three-wallet No conviction cluster
Three wallets coordinated $8,258 in No buys at 32–77¢, including a 74% winner, while moving the market sharply to near certainty.
$8,258Score: 7.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0xc84f7e…e0c5$54,437 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$47,367 · 2 markets · 8 alerts · 67% wins
- 0xb26014…ee44$47,113 · 2 markets · 3 alerts
- 0x614dc8…1546$33,756 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$17,353 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$6,038 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$6,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 93% wins
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$1,559 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x5ccf62…79d7$1,520 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
- 0x6404bf…f250$1,300 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
The live Polymarket odds show the market-implied probability that the ceasefire continues through September 30, 2026. Odds can change as traders respond to new developments.
What outcomes are traded in this US-Iran prediction market?
The event covers whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30. It resolves to Yes if no qualifying US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacts Iran by the stated deadline, and No otherwise.
What is smart money doing in the US-Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter tracks $29,080 in smart money across this event and has recorded one signal. The latest alert reports that a serial trader scaled into Yes, indicating a notable position favoring continued ceasefire under the market rules.
When does the US-Iran ceasefire market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on events through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Consult the official market rules for the precise qualifying-action criteria.