US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
14 signals across 3 markets · $98,172 tracked · resolves Sep 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30, 2026, or whether the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran before the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $29,080 in smart money across the event, including a recent signal showing a serial trader scaling into Yes.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Six-wallet cluster scaling into No
A six-wallet funded cluster is concentrating $9,294 into No, with two established holders adding to sizable positions despite limited price movement.
$9,294Score: 9.7 - Six-wallet funded cluster
A six-wallet common-funder cluster is taking a fresh No position in a consequential geopolitical market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong pricing edge.
$1,287Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.5 - 11-wallet coordinated Yes buying
Eleven linked wallets are accumulating Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader already holding a Yes position.
$1,083Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 7.2 - Six-wallet funded cluster
A six-wallet common-funder cluster is taking a fresh No position in a consequential geopolitical market, though the individual trader's historical record does not show a strong pricing edge.
$4,421Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 7.1 - Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, though this individual trade is an add to an existing position rather than fresh conviction.
$1,300Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 7.0 - Five-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Five wallets concentrated $17,660 into Yes, with a profitable high-volume bettor and a serial cross-market trader among the participants as odds rose 12.5%.
$17,660Score: 6.9 - Coordinated Yes buying with a sharp trader
Three wallets added $13.1K to Yes during a 352x volume spike, including a serial trader with a 78% win rate and substantial profits.
$13,114Score: 6.6 - Five-wallet funded cluster buys No
Five wallets sharing a funder are building a No position, providing a notable coordinated directional signal despite the individual trader's weak track record.
$1,231Wallet win rate: 43%Score: 6.6 - Serial trader adds large Yes bet
A serial cross-market trader with 548 resolved bets added an unusually large Yes position in a thinly traded geopolitical market, despite only modest evidence of pricing edge.
$8,980Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.1 - Serial trader adds large Yes bet
A serial cross-market trader with 548 resolved bets added an unusually large Yes position in a thinly traded geopolitical market, despite only modest evidence of pricing edge.
$3,056Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 4.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x614dc8…1546$33,756 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$13,465 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$5,708 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$1,559 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x6404bf…f250$1,300 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0x41f3b5…844e$1,231 · 1 market · 1 alert · 43% wins
- 0xe5dcd5…35f9$1,083 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
FAQs
What are the US-Iran ceasefire odds on Polymarket?
The live Polymarket odds show the market-implied probability that the ceasefire continues through September 30, 2026. Odds can change as traders respond to new developments.
What outcomes are traded in this US-Iran prediction market?
The event covers whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30. It resolves to Yes if no qualifying US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacts Iran by the stated deadline, and No otherwise.
What is smart money doing in the US-Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter tracks $29,080 in smart money across this event and has recorded one signal. The latest alert reports that a serial trader scaled into Yes, indicating a notable position favoring continued ceasefire under the market rules.
When does the US-Iran ceasefire market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on events through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Consult the official market rules for the precise qualifying-action criteria.