Part of: Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Avengers: Doomsday will earn more during its three-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie released in 2026. The supplied data does not include a current Yes/No probability; the market resolves after final, non-studio-estimate figures are reported, by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $38,110.
Categories: The Odyssey, Movies, Culture, Spider-Man
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adding No
A historically profitable, highly active trader added a sizable No position that accounts for nearly all reported 24-hour market volume, though their win rate does not clearly beat their average winning odds.
- This trader is up $266K across 588 resolved bets and is adding to an existing No position.
- The roughly $6K buy accounts for nearly all of the volume cited by the low-activity signal; No was bought at 42¢.
$5,976 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial bettor adding to Yes
A profitable, active cross-market bettor added $3,300 to an existing Yes position in a quiet market, making the trade notable despite no clear odds-adjusted edge.
- The bettor has won 64% of 921 resolved bets and is up $64,765 overall.
- This $3,300 buy adds to an existing $10,434 Yes position and is about 20 times the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The entry was 57¢, with the market now at 60¢; the market still has a long time until resolution.
$3,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial trader adding to Yes
A consistently profitable trader added $2,767 to an existing Yes position at 60¢ as the market rose 22 points in a day.
- This trader has won 64% of 891 resolved bets and is up $55,267 overall.
- They added $2,767 to an existing Yes position at 60¢; the market is now 72¢ after a 22-point daily rise.
- The bet was 62% of the market’s 24-hour volume, showing meaningful conviction in a relatively quiet period.
$2,767 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Linked-wallet bettor takes a sizable Yes position
A $3,356 Yes position is unusually large relative to recent market activity, with a linked-wallet signal and rising odds providing corroboration.
- A $3,356 buy was nearly five times the market’s 24-hour volume.
- Two wallets share a funder, and the Yes price has risen 12% over the past week.
- The bettor is up $891,274 lifetime, though its 62% win rate alone does not establish an edge at this entry price.
$3,356 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable whale, No-heavy hedge
A profitable high-volume trader placed $9.4K across both outcomes in a thin market, with the larger position on No and a notable price-impact signal, though the opposing buys weaken the directional read.
- The wallet is up $2.45M lifetime and put $9.4K into a market with only $2.75K in 24-hour volume.
- The larger trade was a $5.65K buy on No, alongside a $3.79K Yes buy seconds earlier—so this is not a clean one-way bet.
- No is the more actionable side at the 37¢ entry, but the opposing position makes the signal less certain.
$9,442 on No | Wallet win rate: 45%
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 88% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding to an existing Yes position at 56¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of 121 resolved trades and is up $20,483 lifetime.
- They are adding $3,866 to an existing Yes position, bringing their investment to roughly $11,751.
- The 56¢ entry is near the market price after a 23-point weekly rise, while the trade represents 143% of reported 24-hour volume.
$3,866 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable bettor scales into Yes
A profitable bettor with a 72% win rate is adding heavily to an existing Yes position at 30¢, representing 72% of recent market volume.
- This bettor has won 72% of 25 resolved trades and is up $13,137 overall.
- The $4,526 purchase represented 72% of the market's 24-hour volume and added to a $15,000 Yes position.
- Yes has since risen from the 30¢ entry to about 34%, despite the market's previously depressed pricing.
$4,878 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable bettor scales into Yes
A profitable bettor with a 72% win rate is adding heavily to an existing Yes position at 30¢, representing 72% of recent market volume.
- This bettor has won 72% of 25 resolved trades and is up $13,137 overall.
- The $4,526 purchase represented 72% of the market's 24-hour volume and added to a $15,000 Yes position.
- Yes has since risen from the 30¢ entry to about 34%, despite the market's previously depressed pricing.
$4,526 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
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