Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
This Polymarket market asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by December 31, 2026. If an official agreement is reached before the deadline, the market resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $3,479 in smart money activity, including recent Yes and No flow alerts.
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $90,117.
Categories: Israel, Politics, Foreign Policy, World, Iran, Middle East, Geopolitics, Nuclear, Peace Deal, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
Proven cross-market bettor
Surfaced because this is a proven serial cross-market trader with 75% wins across 397 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L buying Yes again after strong upward momentum.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved markets and is up $253k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 94 events with $8.2M in detected volume.
- They bought Yes at 85¢ after a 19-point weekly move, signaling continued conviction.
$3,479 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 200 resolved bets is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a plausible geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 62% of 200 resolved bets and is up $78k lifetime.
- They have traded across 25 events and 35 related markets, with $621k in cross-market volume.
- Yes has already moved up 11 points in the past day, and this buy adds to that momentum at 75¢.
$2,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader re-entered Yes with a $7.1k buy that was large relative to the market's daily volume.
- This bettor has traded 196 related markets across 98 events and has won 69% of 449 resolved bets.
- They are up about $43k lifetime and are re-entering Yes after previously closing a smaller position.
- The $7.1k buy was nearly 59% of the market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction.
$7,063 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Sharp contrarian buys No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and $446k profit is taking a contrarian No position after a large Yes-side price move.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $446k lifetime.
- They have traded 115 markets across 44 events, suggesting a proven cross-market edge.
- They bought No at 28¢ after Yes jumped 21 points in a day, a contrarian fade of the move.
$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved-bet history bought Yes on a politically information-sensitive market.
- This bettor has won 70% of 417 resolved bets and is up about $250k lifetime.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader, active across 89 events with $1.65M total volume.
- Entry at 62¢ follows recent upward momentum, with Yes up 4.5 points in the last day.
$1,682 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
New repeat whale buying YES
An 8-day-old wallet with six repeat large-bet alerts is adding Yes exposure on a geopolitically meaningful market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
- An 8-day-old wallet has now triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling $43.4k.
- This is fresh Yes exposure at 61¢ on a geopolitical market where informed views are plausible.
- The $2k buy is meaningful versus $13.2k in 24h volume, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 22%
New wallet joins Yes surge
New repeat wallet sold No into a large US-Iran deal volume spike, aligning with one-sided Yes flow from multiple wallets, though the wallet has no proven resolved track record.
- A new repeat bettor is effectively backing Yes, with $3.1K flagged across recent large trades.
- Three wallets are all pushing the same direction, combining for $4.3K of Yes-side flow.
- Market activity is unusually hot, with volume spiking 278x versus its historical average.
$1,032 on Yes
Repeat new wallet on Yes
High composite alert from a repeat new wallet selling No, equivalent to buying Yes, amid a major volume spike and one-sided Yes flow.
- A new wallet has now made 4 flagged large bets totaling about $5.7K.
- Market activity spiked 278x versus its historical average, suggesting unusual positioning.
- Three wallets are all leaning Yes, with about $4.3K in same-direction flow.
$1,419 on Yes
Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow
A repeat new-wallet buyer joined one-sided Yes flow during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated positioning despite no resolved track record.
- This new wallet has now been flagged 9 times, with $18.5K in notable bets despite no resolved history yet.
- Five wallets bought the same Yes side, totaling $7.3K in one-sided flow.
- The market saw a 191x volume spike, suggesting a sudden wave of positioning around the nuclear-deal outcome.
$1,368 on Yes
Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow
High-score geopolitical alert with a repeat new wallet buying Yes alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major volume spike.
- A repeat new wallet has now been flagged 7 times, with $13.2K in notable bets so far.
- Five wallets are all betting Yes in the same window, totaling $7.3K of one-sided flow.
- Volume is 191x above its usual pace, while this trade effectively entered Yes at 57¢.
$1,892 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x5739...5f1a — Outcome 45763018, $34,302 (55% win rate)
- 0x334b...d971 — Outcome 45763018, $18,397 (56% win rate)
- 0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 45763018, $18,068 (63% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — Outcome 45763018, $12,037 (67% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 45763018, $11,506 (82% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 45763018, $8,182 (59% win rate)
- 0xc0bf...2032 — Outcome 45763018, $6,279 (50% win rate)
- 0x1b82...7a36 — Outcome 45763018, $5,975
- 0x8b71...8044 — Outcome 45763018, $5,672 (89% win rate)
- 0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 45763018, $5,000 (36% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
