Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce a mutual agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapons development by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if an official agreement is reached before the deadline, even if it takes effect later; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $5,711 in smart money activity across 4 signals, including recent Yes flow spikes and No-side wallet surges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $72,243.
Categories: Israel, Politics, Foreign Policy, World, Iran, Middle East, Geopolitics, Nuclear
Notable Trades
New wallet joins Yes surge
New repeat wallet sold No into a large US-Iran deal volume spike, aligning with one-sided Yes flow from multiple wallets, though the wallet has no proven resolved track record.
- A new repeat bettor is effectively backing Yes, with $3.1K flagged across recent large trades.
- Three wallets are all pushing the same direction, combining for $4.3K of Yes-side flow.
- Market activity is unusually hot, with volume spiking 278x versus its historical average.
$1,032 on Yes
Repeat new wallet on Yes
High composite alert from a repeat new wallet selling No, equivalent to buying Yes, amid a major volume spike and one-sided Yes flow.
- A new wallet has now made 4 flagged large bets totaling about $5.7K.
- Market activity spiked 278x versus its historical average, suggesting unusual positioning.
- Three wallets are all leaning Yes, with about $4.3K in same-direction flow.
$1,419 on Yes
Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow
A repeat new-wallet buyer joined one-sided Yes flow during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated positioning despite no resolved track record.
- This new wallet has now been flagged 9 times, with $18.5K in notable bets despite no resolved history yet.
- Five wallets bought the same Yes side, totaling $7.3K in one-sided flow.
- The market saw a 191x volume spike, suggesting a sudden wave of positioning around the nuclear-deal outcome.
$1,368 on Yes
Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow
High-score geopolitical alert with a repeat new wallet buying Yes alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major volume spike.
- A repeat new wallet has now been flagged 7 times, with $13.2K in notable bets so far.
- Five wallets are all betting Yes in the same window, totaling $7.3K of one-sided flow.
- Volume is 191x above its usual pace, while this trade effectively entered Yes at 57¢.
$1,892 on Yes
Coordinated Yes flow spike
Four wallets bought the same effective Yes position during a major volume spike, including a repeat new-wallet large bettor, though there is no resolved track record yet.
- Four wallets are all taking the same Yes side, totaling $5.8K across buys and equivalent No sells.
- The market is seeing a 149x volume spike versus its historical average, suggesting fresh attention around this thesis.
- One new wallet has now been flagged repeatedly, with $7.6K in large bets despite no resolved track record yet.
$5,840 on Yes
Coordinated No flow
Strong coordinated No buying with a 149x volume spike and repeat large-bet new wallet makes this worth surfacing despite no resolved wallet history.
- Four wallets bought No in the same window, totaling $18.6k.
- This repeat new wallet added $3.1k here after $9.3k in prior flagged bets.
- Volume spiked 149x normal as Yes fell 12.5 points today.
$3,096 on No
New wallet joins No surge
New repeat wallet bought $7.7k of No alongside broader one-sided flow and a 159x volume spike on a high-salience geopolitical market.
- A new repeat bettor put $7.7k into No at 43¢ across five rapid buys.
- Five wallets are all buying No, totaling $29.4k in the same direction.
- Volume is running 159x above its historical average, suggesting a sudden shift in attention.
$7,740 on No
New wallet joins No cluster
Strong one-sided No flow from a repeat new wallet aligns with a 5-wallet cluster and a major volume spike on a high-salience politics market.
- Five wallets are betting No together, totaling $29.4K in the same direction.
- This new wallet has repeatedly sold Yes, building a $7.7K No-equivalent position around 43¢.
- Market volume is surging 159x above its historical pace while Yes is down 13% today.
$7,749 on No
New wallet joins No wave
A repeat-flagged new wallet is buying No alongside a 5-wallet one-sided wave and a major volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- A new wallet split $5.7k into three No buys at 43¢, adding to a repeat large-bet pattern.
- Five wallets are all buying No in the same window, totaling $29.4k of one-sided flow.
- Market volume spiked 159x versus its historical average, suggesting a sudden rush into this thesis.
$5,674 on No
New wallet buying Yes
A repeat-flagged new wallet sold No amid an 82x volume spike on a geopolitically meaningful market, effectively buying Yes at 57¢ despite no resolved track record.
- A new wallet is making repeat large bets, with $3,096 flagged so far and 1 existing position.
- The trade lands during an 82x volume spike, suggesting fresh attention to this market.
- Selling No at 43¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 57¢, after the market fell 12 points over the last day.
$1,548 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $34,298 (53% win rate)
- 0x3ad1...b4c5 — Yes, $23,283
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $20,988 (64% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $20,059 (62% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $13,784 (58% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $13,713 (48% win rate)
- 0x058f...4883 — Yes, $13,616 (100% win rate)
- 0x7e31...454d — Yes, $13,600 (72% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — No, $12,132 (44% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — No, $12,037 (46% win rate)
