US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
21 signals across 1 market · $90,117 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States and Iran will publicly announce an official nuclear agreement by the end of 2026. Traders are pricing the chances of a deal covering Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, while PolySpotter highlights smart money activity including recent YES buying from a serial macro bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Coordinated Yes flow spike
Four wallets bought the same effective Yes position during a major volume spike, including a repeat new-wallet large bettor, though there is no resolved track record yet.
$5,840Score: 17.2 - New wallet buying Yes
A repeat-flagged new wallet sold No amid an 82x volume spike on a geopolitically meaningful market, effectively buying Yes at 57¢ despite no resolved track record.
$1,548Score: 13.1 - Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow
A repeat new-wallet buyer joined one-sided Yes flow during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated positioning despite no resolved track record.
$1,368Score: 13.1 - New wallet joins No surge
New repeat wallet bought $7.7k of No alongside broader one-sided flow and a 159x volume spike on a high-salience geopolitical market.
$7,740Score: 13.0 - New wallet joins No cluster
Strong one-sided No flow from a repeat new wallet aligns with a 5-wallet cluster and a major volume spike on a high-salience politics market.
$7,749Score: 12.7 - New wallet joins No wave
A repeat-flagged new wallet is buying No alongside a 5-wallet one-sided wave and a major volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive market.
$5,674Score: 12.7 - Coordinated No flow
Strong coordinated No buying with a 149x volume spike and repeat large-bet new wallet makes this worth surfacing despite no resolved wallet history.
$3,096Score: 12.7 - Coordinated No flow
Three wallets pushed nearly $19.3k into No during a huge pre-event volume spike, including a repeat new-wallet large bettor, despite no resolved track records.
$19,338Score: 12.6 - Repeat new wallet joins Yes flow
High-score geopolitical alert with a repeat new wallet buying Yes alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major volume spike.
$1,892Score: 12.5 - New wallet joins Yes surge
New repeat wallet sold No into a large US-Iran deal volume spike, aligning with one-sided Yes flow from multiple wallets, though the wallet has no proven resolved track record.
$1,032Score: 12.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf87912…646c$12,384 · 1 market · 3 alerts
- 0x0cc30b…7f7b$9,117 · 1 market · 2 alerts
- 0x162f6f…798d$8,745 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 69% wins
- 0xd520ba…6909$7,566 · 1 market · 2 alerts
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$7,304 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x7db194…7aca$6,214 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0x35bbba…009b$5,508 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x56ebe2…076a$2,250 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0x079fa0…28df$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 22% wins
- 0xc721a5…4785$1,419 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
The live Polymarket odds show the market-implied probability that the U.S. and Iran reach a qualifying nuclear agreement by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart money activity so you can see whether experienced traders are leaning Yes or No.
What is smart money doing in the US-Iran nuclear deal market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts flagged a serial macro bettor buying YES and activity from a profitable serial macro trader. That suggests some experienced geopolitical traders are positioning for a higher chance of an agreement, though market prices can change quickly.
How does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market resolves Yes if the United States and Iran publicly announce a mutual official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying agreement is reached by then, it resolves No.
Does the deal need to take effect before 2027?
No. According to the market rules, an officially reached and publicly announced agreement can resolve the market Yes even if the agreement takes effect later.
Why follow this event on PolySpotter?
PolySpotter helps you go beyond the headline odds by tracking smart money signals, profitable trader activity, and notable position changes in the Polymarket prediction market for a US-Iran nuclear deal.