Part of: Brazil Presidential Election
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $792,762.
Categories: Politics, Macro Election 2, Main Election, Brazil, Global Elections, World Elections, World
Notable Trades
56-wallet No-buying cluster
A profitable bettor is adding to a large No position as 56 wallets also buy No and the market sees a major volume spike.
- 56 wallets have bought No, totaling about $491,000 in aligned bets.
- This bettor is up about $631,000 across 35 resolved markets and is adding to an existing No position.
- The alert includes an 83× volume spike and a 16-point price move toward No.
$75,461 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
99% winner buying Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 462 wins in 467 resolved positions is buying Yes, supported by a long record of exceptional performance across markets.
- This bettor has won 462 of 467 resolved positions and is up $725,668.
- Their average winning price was 53¢, well below the current 80¢ entry.
- They have traded across 266 events, with nearly $946,000 in total volume.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
Proven 92% winner adding to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 92% wins across 167 resolved positions is adding to a substantial existing Yes position, despite the market already pricing Yes at 80%.
- This bettor has won 92% of 167 resolved positions and is up $1.35M.
- They already hold over $90,000 in Yes shares and added another $5,000 at 80¢.
- The wallet has traded across 271 events, showing an extensive history beyond this market.
$4,543 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% winner adding to Yes position
A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to a substantial existing Yes position in the election market.
- This bettor has won 153 of 167 resolved positions and earned $1.35M.
- They are adding to an existing $56,844 Yes position, showing continued conviction.
- The trader has positioned across 271 events, with a 92% win rate.
$5,390 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
95% winner taking a $38K No position
A highly profitable bettor with a 95% win rate is making a large $38,102 sale of Yes, equivalent to buying No at 24¢.
- This bettor has won 201 of 212 resolved trades and is up $260,350.
- The $38,102 sale of Yes is equivalent to buying No at 24¢.
- They have traded across 118 events, with a reported 95% win rate.
$42,989 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable bettor with a large, sustained track record is taking a fresh Yes position in a major political market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 9,436 resolved trades and is up $1.35 million.
- They placed a fresh $1,196 Yes bet and have traded across 1,241 events.
- The market is already priced at 80¢, so the entry offers limited room before the suggested 90¢ ceiling.
$1,098 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
99% winner buying Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 462 wins in 467 resolved positions is buying Yes, supported by a long record of exceptional performance across markets.
- This bettor has won 462 of 467 resolved positions and is up $725,668.
- Their average winning price was 53¢, well below the current 80¢ entry.
- They have traded across 266 events, with nearly $946,000 in total volume.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
New whale adds to $146K Yes position
A one-hour-old wallet has built a roughly $146K Yes position and added another $61K, showing unusually strong conviction despite no track record.
- A wallet created about an hour ago has invested roughly $146K backing Flávio Bolsonaro.
- This $61K buy adds to an existing Yes position at an average entry near 80¢.
- The wallet has no resolved bets, and the market already prices Yes at about 79%, so its edge is unproven.
$60,915 on Yes
Proven bettor adding to large Yes position
A proven bettor with an 86% win rate and substantial existing exposure added nearly $25,000 to Yes at 80¢.
- This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved trades and made about $24,000 profit.
- They added nearly $25,000 to Yes at 80¢ while already holding about $229,000 in the position.
$5,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable bettor with a large, sustained track record is taking a fresh Yes position in a major political market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 9,436 resolved trades and is up $1.35 million.
- They placed a fresh $1,196 Yes bet and have traded across 1,241 events.
- The market is already priced at 80¢, so the entry offers limited room before the suggested 90¢ ceiling.
$1,196 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $10,820,471
- 0xddfd...fbb1 — Yes, $645,542
- 0x8c0b...7aa5 — Yes, $317,660 (63% win rate)
- 0x482a...c85d — Yes, $278,767 (77% win rate)
- 0xf54c...c86f — Yes, $259,500
- 0x2ed3...4589 — Yes, $232,782 (86% win rate)
- 0x27b0...209b — Yes, $230,000
- 0x7c25...6606 — Yes, $217,512 (87% win rate)
- 0x6918...4726 — Yes, $207,498 (62% win rate)
- 0x63af...78a4 — Yes, $164,771
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