Part of: Brazil Presidential Election
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
This prediction market tracks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will win Brazil’s presidential election on October 4, 2026, including a potential second round. It resolves based on the reported election result; if the outcome remains unknown by June 30, 2027, it resolves to “Other.”
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
40 smart money signals detected, totaling $166,883.
Categories: Brazil, Global Elections, World Elections, World, Politics, Macro Election 2, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Proven sharp trimming a winning position
A highly profitable, proven bettor is actively trading this market, though the simultaneous buy and sell alongside a large existing position make the direction ambiguous.
- This bettor wins 82% of 283 resolved trades and is up $1.47 million.
- The wallet sold Yes at 51¢ after entering around 26¢, indicating substantial profit-taking rather than a fresh bearish position.
- It also bought Yes at 47¢ moments earlier, suggesting active trading or market-making instead of a clean directional signal.
$9,932 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven sharp trimming a winning position
A highly profitable, proven bettor is actively trading this market, though the simultaneous buy and sell alongside a large existing position make the direction ambiguous.
- This bettor wins 82% of 283 resolved trades and is up $1.47 million.
- The wallet sold Yes at 51¢ after entering around 26¢, indicating substantial profit-taking rather than a fresh bearish position.
- It also bought Yes at 47¢ moments earlier, suggesting active trading or market-making instead of a clean directional signal.
$17,445 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$1,316 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
81% winner scaling into Yes
A high-volume bettor with an 81% historical win rate is adding $14,069 to an existing Yes position, though the negative lifetime P&L reduces confidence.
- This bettor has won 81% of 251 resolved trades and reportedly beats implied odds by 24%.
- They added $14,069 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment to $26,059.
- The market has risen 11.2% over the past week, supporting the direction, though the wallet's lifetime P&L remains negative.
$14,069 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$5,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate is adding to a large existing Yes position at 33%, supporting this as a notable directional bet.
- This bettor has won 82% of 217 resolved trades and is up $1.1 million.
- They already have $123,660 invested in Yes and are adding at 33¢ as the price rises.
- The 33¢ entry implies roughly a 3-to-1 payoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
$1,337 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$1,738 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate is adding to a large existing Yes position at 33%, supporting this as a notable directional bet.
- This bettor has won 82% of 217 resolved trades and is up $1.1 million.
- They already have $123,660 invested in Yes and are adding at 33¢ as the price rises.
- The 33¢ entry implies roughly a 3-to-1 payoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
$2,753 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$1,368 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate is adding to a large existing Yes position at 33%, supporting this as a notable directional bet.
- This bettor has won 82% of 217 resolved trades and is up $1.1 million.
- They already have $123,660 invested in Yes and are adding at 33¢ as the price rises.
- The 33¢ entry implies roughly a 3-to-1 payoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
$9,008 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $3,412,469
- 0xeb49...693e — Yes, $234,432 (92% win rate)
- 0x8aa7...0d94 — Yes, $177,858 (17% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — Yes, $164,189 (71% win rate)
- 0xb1ce...ced2 — Yes, $158,387
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $123,434 (82% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — Yes, $97,259 (90% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $97,193 (49% win rate)
- 0xcb25...5ab5 — Yes, $82,407 (50% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $79,082 (75% win rate)
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