US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,485.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
New wallet joins Yes cluster
Three wallets put nearly $9.6k into Yes during a sharp volume spike, including a brand-new wallet betting repeatedly, creating a notable coordinated directional signal in a news-driven geopolitics market.
- Three wallets piled nearly $9.6k into Yes in a coordinated burst while market volume ran 15.5x above normal
- One wallet is only 3 hours old and already fired three large bets, a pattern that often signals fresh high-conviction positioning
- Most of the Yes buying came at 37-50¢, implying they see official US-Iran talks as better than a coin flip by April 20
$9,632 on Yes
Profitable serial event trader
High-volume serial cross-market trader with a large profitable history is buying No at 90¢ in a geopolitics market after a sharp one-day move.
- This bettor has 1,286 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up about $222k
- They trade across related markets heavily — 141 events and 317 markets suggest a repeatable event-driven process
- Bought No at 90¢ after this market fell 37 points in a day, backing the view that a meeting is still unlikely
$1,791 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
93% win-rate bettor
A historically elite wallet with a 93% win rate and strong edge is buying into a fast-moving geopolitical market, making this a notable thesis to watch despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 93% of their trades and is up about $57k across 808 resolved positions
- They bought Yes at 78¢ in a geopolitical market after a 37.5-point one-day move, suggesting they still see upside
- They are building a related three-market thesis around the same event, which adds confidence beyond a one-off bet
$1,062 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x4128...dc3c — Yes, $23,340 (17% win rate)
- 0xea79...a9cc — No, $18,960 (66% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $15,545 (35% win rate)
- 0xfc4e...818a — No, $13,376 (67% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $10,118 (86% win rate)
- 0x9036...71e8 — Yes, $9,679
- 0xe617...f251 — No, $7,496 (95% win rate)
- 0x48ee...008c — Yes, $7,301 (38% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — Yes, $7,245 (40% win rate)
- 0x9eec...9a8c — No, $5,565 (64% win rate)
