Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,840.

Categories: Iran, traffic, Oil, Hormuz, Hormoz, Geopolitics, tanker, U.S. x Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Rewards 300 4.5 50

Notable Trades

97% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 97% resolved win rate bought Yes despite only a modest trade size.

This bettor has won 95 of 98 resolved positions and is up $80.7k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 71¢, adding conviction above the current market midpoint around 69¢.
The market has meaningful liquidity and recent Yes momentum, up 4.5 points over the past day.

$1,105 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

Whale drives thin-market breakout

A very large Yes buy on a thin Strait of Hormuz transit market dwarfed recent volume and helped extend a major upside breakout, though the wallet's long-term record is not strong.

A single $25.7K buy was more than 8x the market’s entire 24h volume.
The trade pushed Yes through a major breakout after the price had already risen about 50 points this week.
This looks like fresh conviction after the wallet closed a prior No position and flipped to Yes.

$25,735 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 84110442, $45,121
0xc040...beac — Outcome 84110442, $5,375 (46% win rate)
0x21b6...83d8 — Outcome 84110442, $1,080
0x9ddf...2c83 — Outcome 84110442, $717 (22% win rate)
0x94b0...9d34 — Outcome 84110442, $691
0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 84110442, $650 (82% win rate)
0x3776...edb3 — Outcome 84110442, $441
0xa99b...1211 — Outcome 84110442, $400
0x2f08...a861 — Outcome 79917464, $240
0x6f67...102c — Outcome 84110442, $229

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Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

ResolvedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?$26,840 tracked2 signalsIrantrafficOilHormuzHormozGeopoliticstankerU.S. x IranStrait of HormuzRewards 300 4.5 50

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.