Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $430,261.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Brand-new repeat bettor buys YES
A wallet less than 1 day old is making repeated sizeable bets and converts here to buying Yes at 16¢ on a geopolitics market where informed views are plausible.
- This wallet is only 18 hours old but has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling $34K.
- The trade is effectively buying Yes at 16¢, a low-probability entry with high upside if Iran closes airspace.
- This is a geopolitics market with heavy volume, making repeat conviction from a new wallet worth watching.
$2,189 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a fresh No position near expiry, though the trade size is modest in a very liquid market.
- This bettor is up $325K lifetime across 821 resolved trades.
- They have a long cross-market track record, trading 45 markets across 25 events.
- Bought No at 84¢ while the market moved sharply toward No today.
$2,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable cross-market NO buyer
Profitable serial cross-market trader is making a fresh $5k NO buy on a high-volume geopolitical market aligned with the day’s sharp move lower in Yes odds.
- This bettor is up $325k across 821 resolved trades.
- They have traded 45 related markets across 25 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $5k NO buy follows a 15-point drop in Yes odds over the past day.
$4,971 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.6M lifetime profit is buying No after the market moved sharply that direction.
- This bettor is up $1.6M across 904 resolved trades with a 63% win rate.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 48 events and $3.0M in flagged event bets.
- Buying No at 85¢ aligns with a sharp 1-day move against Yes, which fell 21 percentage points.
$7,225 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
85% sharp buying NO
Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is buying No, backed by a long serial cross-market record despite the market being highly liquid.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 38 events with $1.38M deployed.
- Buying No at 85¢ aligns with the market’s strong 1-day move away from Yes.
$4,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% hit rate is re-entering No while the market is seeing a 10x volume spike and sharp move toward No.
- This bettor has won 74% of 332 resolved bets and is up about $226K lifetime.
- They have traded 127 markets across 80 events, suggesting a repeat event-driven strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- No has strong momentum, with Yes down 18.5 points in the past day amid a 10x volume spike.
$2,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.6M lifetime P&L placed a $42k No bet amid a 10x volume spike and strong same-day move toward No.
- This bettor wins 63% of resolved trades and is up $1.6M lifetime.
- They placed $42k on No at 84¢ while volume spiked 10x above normal.
- The wallet is a serial cross-market trader across 48 events, suggesting a repeatable research-driven style.
$42,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial cross-market winner buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a plausible geopolitics market after sharp momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved bets and is up $226k lifetime.
- They have traded 127 related markets across 80 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process.
- Buying No at 83¢ follows a 19% one-day drop in Yes, aligning with strong market momentum.
$1,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Serial event trader buying YES
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian Yes position at 18¢ as part of a broader $22k event thesis.
- This bettor has won 74% of 332 resolved bets and is up about $226k lifetime.
- They have traded across 80 events and are putting $22k into related markets here.
- Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢ after the market fell 13.5 points today.
$2,474 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding an $8.2k No bet after Yes odds fell sharply, but the signal is moderate because this is a liquid market and the trade is not unusually large.
- This bettor is up $1.6M lifetime across 904 resolved trades.
- They have traded across 48 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Buying No at 82¢ follows a 13.5-point drop in Yes odds over the past day.
$8,199 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $91,695 (72% win rate)
- 0xf1bf...11d7 — Yes, $84,139 (50% win rate)
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Yes, $40,749 (22% win rate)
- 0x7b66...3a93 — Yes, $30,000
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $26,900 (87% win rate)
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Yes, $26,402 (59% win rate)
- 0x38dd...44cf — Yes, $22,254
- 0x45d5...e43e — Yes, $14,519
- 0xad2e...d9bd — Yes, $13,917
- 0x1cf7...fa07 — Yes, $10,625 (18% win rate)
