Iran closes its airspace by...?
494 signals across 13 markets · $2,559,872 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether Iran will initiate a major, non-weather-related closure of its airspace by several deadlines, including May 8, May 15, May 31, and June 30. PolySpotter is monitoring $925K+ in smart money activity across 138 signals, with recent alerts showing sharp and profitable traders clustering around both Yes and No positions.
Markets (13)
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?110 signals · $545,621 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by May 8?56 signals · $450,117 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?95 signals · $436,042 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by May 21?62 signals · $366,422 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by June 8?28 signals · $277,047 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by May 15?33 signals · $160,660 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?36 signals · $133,004 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?44 signals · $120,963 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27?12 signals · $24,066 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by July 31?6 signals · $17,822 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?6 signals · $17,251 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by July 15?5 signals · $9,566 tracked
- Iran closes its airspace by June 22?1 signal · $1,290 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 19-wallet Yes cluster
Strong Yes-side cluster with $63K across 19 wallets, linked-wallet activity, sharp participants, and a major volume/price surge.
$63,171Score: 77.4 - 18-wallet linked No cluster
Large coordinated No-side flow from 18 wallets, including linked funding and experienced cross-market traders, is fading a huge Yes rally near resolution.
$67,881Score: 70.7 - Linked sharp cluster buying YES
A 9-wallet Yes cluster with linked funding and several profitable/serial cross-market traders is positioning on a geopolitics market with strong recent price movement, though there is some opposing No flow.
$23,564Score: 40.3 - Sharp cluster fading spike
A five-wallet cluster, including an 80% historical winner, is fading a huge Yes price spike by effectively buying No around 18¢.
$17,404Score: 35.6 - Coordinated Yes sharp flow
High-conviction Yes-equivalent cluster with $21k from 8 wallets, including profitable high-volume traders and strong event-wide positioning amid a 56-point daily price surge.
$20,990Score: 33.8 - Six-wallet geopolitical Yes cluster
High-scoring coordinated Yes flow from six wallets, including several experienced cross-market traders, into a plausible geopolitical news market with a major volume spike and rising odds.
$17,933Score: 33.1 - Coordinated contrarian No cluster
Five wallets are taking the same contrarian No side against a 96% Yes market, with several also positioning heavily across related Iran markets.
$9,038Score: 30.0 - Sharp cluster flips Yes
Four wallets, including profitable serial cross-market traders, put $21.5k toward Yes amid a 13x volume spike, with two sellers effectively flipping out of prior No exposure.
$21,472Score: 28.1 - Coordinated sharp Yes flow
High-conviction coordinated Yes buying from five wallets, backed by sharp cross-market traders, a major volume spike, and a 20-point price move.
$12,878Score: 27.2 - $3.1M sharp buying No
Elite 88% winning wallet with $3.1M profit is buying No, alongside a 13-wallet one-sided cluster and major cross-market activity.
$7,316Wallet win rate: 89%Score: 25.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf284ad…b9f9$181,892 · 6 markets · 20 alerts · 89% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$137,700 · 4 markets · 14 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$131,610 · 5 markets · 13 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x398daf…c7c3$123,407 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 77% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$102,168 · 5 markets · 24 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xc0ff6a…9953$95,084 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xbf9332…2fd7$73,721 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 60% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$72,852 · 8 markets · 22 alerts · 61% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$58,997 · 7 markets · 19 alerts · 67% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$56,007 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 79% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Iran closing its airspace?
The odds vary by deadline because this event includes multiple markets, from near-term dates like May 8 and May 15 to later outcomes like May 31 and June 30. Check the event hub for the latest prices across all related airspace-closure markets.
What does this Iran airspace prediction market resolve on?
The markets resolve based on whether Iran initiates a major closure, cancellation, or suspension affecting commercial flights through, into, or out of Iranian airspace by the listed deadline. Weather-only closures do not count.
What is smart money doing in this event?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show mixed but notable activity: a sharp cluster flipped Yes, while profitable traders and sharp clusters have also been buying No. That split suggests traders are actively reassessing geopolitical risk and timing.
How much smart money is being tracked on this event?
PolySpotter is tracking about $925,037 in smart money activity across this Iran airspace-closure event, with 138 signals detected across the related child markets.
When do the Iran airspace closure markets resolve?
Each child market resolves according to its own deadline, such as May 8, May 15, May 31, or June 30, if a qualifying closure occurs by 11:59 PM ET on that date. The broader event hub aggregates those related outcomes.