Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
43 smart money signals detected, totaling $364,847.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitics market that has already moved 11 points in the past day.
- This bettor is up $247K across 1,321 resolved bets with a 68% hit rate.
- They have traded 341 markets across 147 events, suggesting a repeatable event-driven strategy.
- Selling No at 76¢ is effectively buying Yes at 24¢ after the market moved up 11 points in a day.
$14,501 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
New whale buying NO
Very new wallet deployed $15.9k on No in a near-term geopolitical market, but with no resolved history and in a highly liquid market this is a moderate-conviction follow rather than a proven sharp signal.
- A wallet under 4 hours old put $15.9k on No, its second large flagged bet already.
- The bet goes against today’s Yes momentum, suggesting a contrarian view at 76¢.
- This is a large geopolitical position with resolution likely driven by near-term news.
$15,916 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable whale fading spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.6M lifetime P&L is re-entering No on a liquid geopolitical market after a Yes-side price spike.
- This bettor is up $1.6M across 904 resolved bets.
- They regularly trade related event markets, with 74 markets across 48 events tracked.
- They bought No at 75¢ after Yes jumped 8% today, effectively fading the airspace-closure move.
$4,992 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a modest No position, though the market is liquid and the signal is mainly track-record based.
- This bettor is up about $791K across 809 resolved bets.
- They have traded 110 markets across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 75¢ on No means they are fading the recent move toward Yes.
$4,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long history of cross-market event trading is buying No, though the trade size is modest relative to this very liquid market.
- This bettor has a long track record, with 1,039 resolved bets and $286k in lifetime profit.
- They regularly trade across related event markets, covering 43 events and over $1M in flagged cross-market volume.
- Buying No at 73¢ implies they see the airspace-closure risk as overstated despite Yes rising 6 points today.
$2,409 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market wallet is buying No on a geopolitical market after Yes moved up 10 points, though the bet is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor is up $286k across 1,039 resolved bets with a 66% win rate.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.05M bet across 43 event themes.
- Buying No at 72¢ fades a 10-point Yes move in a highly active geopolitical market.
$5,099 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Brand-new whale buying YES
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly placing large YES bets on a geopolitically sensitive market with strong 1-day price momentum, suggesting fresh informed conviction despite no resolved track record.
- A wallet less than 1 hour old bought $9.6K of Yes and has already made $27.8K in flagged large bets.
- This is a geopolitics market where fresh information can matter, and Yes is already up 10.5 points in the last day.
- Entry around 28¢ implies the bettor sees meaningful upside from the current market price.
$9,565 on Yes
Fresh whale buying Yes
Brand-new wallet has quickly deployed over $24k in flagged bets, including $7k on Yes in a geopolitics market with strong 1-day momentum.
- A wallet less than 30 minutes old has already made 5 large flagged bets totaling $24.3k.
- This trade adds $7.1k on Yes after the market jumped 15 points in the past day.
- Entry around 33¢ implies they see a meaningful chance of an Iran airspace closure.
$7,055 on Yes
Brand-new whale buying Yes
A 20-minute-old wallet made a concentrated $24k Yes bet on a geopolitically sensitive market that has already moved sharply upward today.
- A brand-new wallet put $24k on Yes within minutes of being created.
- Yes is already up 17 points today, suggesting this bet is riding a strong news-driven move.
- Average entry around 31¢ implies the bettor sees meaningful upside from current odds.
$24,332 on Yes
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and $162k profit is taking a fresh No position, though the bet is modest and price has moved against them.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,088 resolved trades and is up about $162k lifetime.
- They trade across many related event markets, with 92 events and $528k tracked in cross-market activity.
- They closed a prior Yes position and are now buying No at 72¢, signaling a shift in view.
$2,844 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xf396...ed0d — Yes, $169,315 (90% win rate)
- 0x4d17...4e1e — Yes, $115,902
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $95,039 (86% win rate)
- 0xf1bf...11d7 — Yes, $84,139 (50% win rate)
- 0xf284...b9f9 — No, $47,598 (100% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $47,029 (48% win rate)
- 0xa43a...94b2 — Yes, $44,444 (45% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $43,156 (63% win rate)
- 0xa3d3...d424 — Yes, $41,024 (49% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — No, $40,045 (66% win rate)
