Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
This Polymarket tracks whether the Iran-Israel/US conflict will effectively end by December 31 under the market’s rules. For a “Yes” outcome, there must be a continuous 14-day stretch with no qualifying military action between Iran and Israel and the United States, beginning before the cutoff date. The market ultimately resolves by June 30, 2026, after enough time has passed to verify whether that qualifying period occurred.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,200.
Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
A proven high-volume bettor with an 86% win rate is buying into this geopolitics market, making the trade worth watching despite only a single signal.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 148 markets and is up about $167k lifetime
- They have traded 150 markets across 105 events, which suggests a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off punt
- They bought Yes at 80¢ in a liquid market, signaling conviction that the conflict will cool enough to meet the resolution rules
$3,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x554b...74cc — Outcome 72672649, $119,826
- 0x4104...3852 — Outcome 72672649, $111,054
- 0xed87...788f — Outcome 72672649, $100,032 (50% win rate)
- 0x2462...a777 — Outcome 72672649, $35,376
- 0xe382...5af5 — Outcome 72672649, $33,587
- 0x2d72...cca4 — Outcome 72672649, $30,800
- 0x602d...5116 — Outcome 72672649, $22,300
- 0x2202...8787 — Outcome 72672649, $17,289
- 0x4b68...285e — Outcome 72672649, $16,627
- 0xe085...5474 — Outcome 72672649, $15,958
