Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,997.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
93% winner adds to No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position in a thin, wide-spread market, though the trade is less compelling because it appears to be routine scaling rather than a fresh entry.
- This bettor has won 93% of 83 resolved trades and is up $35,675 lifetime.
- The $1,350 addition increases an existing No position to roughly $3,350 in a thin market with a 7-point spread.
- The 68¢ entry implies the trader sees roughly a 68% chance the blockade remains in place through August 13.
$1,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Serial trader scales into No
A serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate added a $5,000 No position in a thin market, though the historical edge is not clearly superior to the prices paid.
- A serial cross-market bettor with 399 resolved trades and a 75% win rate placed $6,647 on No.
- The $5,000 addition represented most of the market's recent volume and helped move No from 48¢ to 56¢.
- The trader was already positioned on No, so this is increased conviction rather than a brand-new thesis.
$6,647 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 19477216, $36,328 (88% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 19477216, $30,000 (52% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 19477216, $27,847 (69% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 19477216, $22,426 (56% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Outcome 19477216, $18,641 (16% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Outcome 19477216, $5,011 (67% win rate)
- 0xa0bc...d428 — Outcome 19477216, $3,079
- 0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 19477216, $3,005 (94% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Outcome 19477216, $2,538 (66% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 19477216, $2,408
Related Theses
Houthis avoid Saudi attacks
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Foreign intervention in Gaza soon
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Hormuz traffic will remain high
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IAEA won’t visit Iranian nuclear sites
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Houthis will hit shipping
Covers 1 related market
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement Delayed Past September
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Phase II ceasefire won’t happen
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Ceasefire holds through mid-August
Covers 6 related markets
Díaz-Canel remains Cuba’s leader
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Hormuz traffic won’t normalize by September
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