Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,997.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

93% winner adds to No

A highly successful serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position in a thin, wide-spread market, though the trade is less compelling because it appears to be routine scaling rather than a fresh entry.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 83 resolved trades and is up $35,675 lifetime.
  • The $1,350 addition increases an existing No position to roughly $3,350 in a thin market with a 7-point spread.
  • The 68¢ entry implies the trader sees roughly a 68% chance the blockade remains in place through August 13.

$1,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate added a $5,000 No position in a thin market, though the historical edge is not clearly superior to the prices paid.

  • A serial cross-market bettor with 399 resolved trades and a 75% win rate placed $6,647 on No.
  • The $5,000 addition represented most of the market's recent volume and helped move No from 48¢ to 56¢.
  • The trader was already positioned on No, so this is increased conviction rather than a brand-new thesis.

$6,647 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc84f...e0c5 Outcome 19477216, $36,328 (88% win rate)
  2. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 19477216, $30,000 (52% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 19477216, $27,847 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x1cc1...b8df Outcome 19477216, $22,426 (56% win rate)
  5. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 19477216, $18,641 (16% win rate)
  6. 0x162f...798d Outcome 19477216, $5,011 (67% win rate)
  7. 0xa0bc...d428 Outcome 19477216, $3,079
  8. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 19477216, $3,005 (94% win rate)
  9. 0xe234...304a Outcome 19477216, $2,538 (66% win rate)
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 19477216, $2,408

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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?

ResolvedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$7,997 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
101¢
73¢
44¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?

15d ago

$1,350 on No at 68¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?

15d ago

$6,647 on No at 48¢

Related Theses