Part of: US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will sign any qualifying written agreement by 11:59 PM ET on June 15, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $12,079 in smart money activity across 2 signals, with recent alerts pointing to deadline-driven volume, Yes-side dip buying, and fading after a rally. The market resolves Yes only if authorized representatives from both governments sign the same document or substantively matching documents indicating acceptance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $25,295.
Categories: Iran, Treaty, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Serial trader on news spike
Experienced cross-market trader bought Yes into a major late-stage volume and price surge on a geopolitics market near its deadline.
- This experienced event trader has bet across 58 markets and wins 63% of resolved trades.
- Market activity surged 68x while Yes jumped 58 points in the last day.
- They bought $3.1k of Yes at 81¢, and the market has already moved to 86¢.
$3,091 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Deadline volume surge
Massive late volume spike and a 58-point one-day move make this a notable momentum trade despite the wallet’s ordinary track record.
- A major money surge is pushing this market: 24h volume hit $435k and odds jumped 58 points.
- This wallet bought nearly $9k of Yes across five trades at about 86¢.
- The market is close to its deadline, so fast political volume like this is worth watching.
$8,987 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Profitable wallets fading spike
Three profitable wallets collectively sold Yes near a same-day political deadline after a huge rally, effectively buying No and causing a sharp pullback.
- The lead bettor has won 72% of 390 resolved trades and is up $393k lifetime.
- Three wallets all faded the same side, effectively buying No with $5.9k total exposure.
- The Yes price dropped about 18 points after these sells, reversing part of a 46-point daily rally.
$5,851 on No
Geopolitical momentum breakout
Surface as a momentum alert: a geopolitical market is seeing a 67x volume spike and a major Yes price breakout, though the specific wallet is not a proven sharp bettor.
- Yes has surged sharply, with volume running 67x above its normal pace.
- The market has traded $331k in the last 24 hours versus $392k total, showing a fresh wave of positioning.
- This buyer entered at 88¢ after a major breakout, implying conviction that the agreement is now highly likely.
$4,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 43%
Elite bettor buying dip-risk Yes
Surfaced because the buyer has an exceptional long-term record despite this Yes position moving sharply against their 54¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $327K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 54¢ in a market now trading near 16¢, so the position has moved heavily against them.
- The market is close to its deadline, making any sharp trader activity worth monitoring.
$2,761 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0xed10...d2e5 — Yes, $211,096 (90% win rate)
- 0x7750...5226 — Yes, $186,141
- 0xd1c7...1d2b — Yes, $130,000
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $129,326 (53% win rate)
- 0x220f...8e2e — No, $118,770
- 0x98a7...df9e — No, $101,000
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — No, $64,663 (68% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $55,548 (88% win rate)
- 0x92a6...8b84 — Yes, $52,724 (98% win rate)
- 0x46b4...72e9 — No, $44,867
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