US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
13 signals across 3 markets · $63,317 tracked · resolves Jul 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether the United States and Iran sign a qualifying written agreement by the listed deadline, with traders pricing the Yes/No outcome. PolySpotter has tracked $1,090 in smart money activity, including a recent signal that an elite 96% winning trader is buying Yes.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes with $8.75k amid a major volume spike and sharp upward price move.
$8,750Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 13.6 - High-win serial traders cluster
Three wallets bought Yes together after a major volume spike, including two high-win serial cross-market traders with positive lifetime P&L.
$10,799Score: 12.1 - 89% winner buying Yes
Surfaced because a highly profitable 89% lifetime bettor is buying Yes amid a huge volume spike and repeated cross-market positioning.
$4,818Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 11.9 - Deadline volume surge
Massive late volume spike and a 58-point one-day move make this a notable momentum trade despite the wallet’s ordinary track record.
$8,987Wallet win rate: 49%Score: 10.0 - Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes into a major volume spike and strong upward price move on a geopolitics market.
$4,400Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 8.7 - Elite 96% winner buying Yes
Elite 96% lifetime winner with $266.9k profit is buying Yes on a high-volume Iran agreement market after a 12.5-point daily move.
$1,090Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 8.0 - Profitable wallets fading spike
Three profitable wallets collectively sold Yes near a same-day political deadline after a huge rally, effectively buying No and causing a sharp pullback.
$5,851Score: 5.9 - Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% long-run win rate bought Yes during a major volume and price surge.
$2,011Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 5.8 - 98% winner buying Yes
Surfacing because this is an exceptionally proven cross-market trader with a 98% resolved win rate buying Yes amid a major volume and price surge.
$4,394Wallet win rate: 98%Score: 5.8 - Geopolitical momentum breakout
Surface as a momentum alert: a geopolitical market is seeing a 67x volume spike and a major Yes price breakout, though the specific wallet is not a proven sharp bettor.
$4,604Wallet win rate: 44%Score: 5.3
Top wallets in this event
- 0xd52b8d…5c72$8,987 · 1 market · 1 alert · 49% wins
- 0xc96e52…f1f9$8,750 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0xf0d5eb…c665$7,579 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x53e55b…6177$4,604 · 1 market · 1 alert · 44% wins
- 0x641b56…5433$4,400 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0x92a629…8b84$4,394 · 1 market · 1 alert · 98% wins
- 0xaf2383…aa95$3,091 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins
- 0xfb5148…742d$2,011 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$1,760 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$1,090 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran agreement?
The event reflects market-implied odds that the U.S. and Iran sign a qualifying written agreement by the deadline. PolySpotter tracks the live market alongside smart money activity to show whether informed traders are leaning Yes or No.
What is the smart money doing on this US-Iran agreement market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,090 in smart money across this event. The latest alert showed an elite trader with a 96% win rate buying Yes, suggesting at least one high-performing wallet is positioning for an agreement.
What counts as a signed US-Iran agreement?
The market requires a written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The signatures can be on the same document or separate documents that clearly show acceptance of the same agreement.
When does this US-Iran agreement market resolve?
The child market asks whether an agreement is signed by June 22, 2026. The event page lists a resolution window extending to July 31, 2026, depending on when qualifying evidence is reviewed.