Part of: WY-AL Republican Primary Winner

Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,572.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, deprec USA Election, House Primary, Wyoming Primary, primary elections, Republican Primary, August 18 Primaries, US Election

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader buys Yes

A highly active, profitable serial trader made a concentrated Yes purchase amid an extraordinary volume spike, although the market has since moved sharply against the position.

This bettor has won 72% of 1,171 resolved trades and earned over $1.15 million.
The $3,948 purchase was part of a 221.8x volume spike, making the position unusually notable.
The entry was 70¢, but Yes has since fallen to 44¢, so the trade carries clear adverse-momentum risk.

$3,948 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader with a profitable 356-bet history added substantially to an existing No position during a 221x volume spike, though the historical edge is moderate.

This trader is up $286,751 across 356 resolved bets and has participated in 60 events.
The $3,200 addition increased an existing No position during a 221x volume spike.
No was bought at 60¢, implying the trader valued Chuck Gray's nomination probability below 40%; the wallet is already invested $8,589 on No.

$3,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

New whale scaling into No

A brand-new wallet is building a large No position in a thin Wyoming primary market, representing meaningful conviction despite no track record.

This wallet is less than an hour old and has committed roughly $3,652 to No, a large position for this market.
The latest $1,424 buy exceeded twice the market's entire 24-hour trading volume.
The position is being added at 39¢ while No is priced near 38¢, implying the trader sees meaningful downside to Chuck Gray's nomination chances.

$1,424 on No

Top Holders

0x680d...afe7 — Outcome 58875067, $19,221
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 58875067, $5,051
0xa43d...00f4 — Outcome 58875067, $2,844 (48% win rate)
0x122c...fbed — Outcome 58875067, $1,483 (60% win rate)
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 58875067, $336
0x5533...51ba — Outcome 58875067, $233
0x1cfc...2111 — Outcome 58875067, $195
0x30fb...7db4 — Outcome 58875067, $116
0x6669...42b5 — Outcome 58875067, $100
0x3f4b...f574 — Outcome 58875067, $80

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Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?

ResolvedWY-AL Republican Primary Winner$8,572 tracked3 signalsPoliticsElectionsPrimariesdeprec USA ElectionHouse PrimaryWyoming Primaryprimary electionsRepublican PrimaryAugust 18 PrimariesUS Election

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the Wyoming At-Large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Price History — “Yes”

76¢

51¢

27¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction